Even if the blocks get orphaned.
So, how many Peta Hashes does BCM need to get it's own split of the BTC blockchain?
Well, a few Peta Hashes won't do it...
For Bitcoin Mundo it has to be a User Activated Hard Fork {UAHF}, that uses 2 MegaByte miner blocks right away. And the miners can change the blocksize at their own will. And SetWit is already ripped out of the sourcecode. There is quite a build up, many supporting this fork, that will create its own version of the Bitcoin blockchain. After the first found Bitcoin Mundo block gets matured, it will be official. Already there are investors buying and trading the BCM Innitial Token Offering {ITO}. The miners are moving away from Bitcoin Core to Bitcoin Mundo. Because BCM offers 3 more transactions per second more, right away. Yes, those three exta where worth disprupting the whole of the cryptos scene. And maybe that is what this is about. Not just a scenario for so called scaling and removing SegWit. But to see if cryptos can be disprupted and controled, by creating division, that is how it works right?
There is no Bitcoin Mundo, but there is really an Altcoin being created that will try to use the Bitcoin blockchain to get its own share of the deal. And with that there is a lot of FUD {Fear, Uncertanty and Doubt} being spread around, as if this would cause a real blockchain split. Well, the Altcoin that is being creating, it is a hardfork that is ment to create a different blockchain, therefore it is a Bitcoin clone. And because the Token offering for the clone is a way, for some, to think they buy cheap Bitcoin, it gets pumped already. Key is to understand that there is quite a lot of capital that will back this innitiative to split the Bitcoin blockchain, or clone it. In that way it has some resemblence with what happened to Ethereum. Now, that was because of a Roll-back, which has noting to do with this Bitcoin situation. But does it matter? Already blocks, if they were were even found by this Bitcoin clone, would be rejected by the real Bitcoin blockchain.
The Bitcoin Blockchain Split Attack {BSA}.
This could well be financed by some who really wants Bitcoin and Cryptos overall to be disrupted. No matter if it gets backed by developers that know how to change some settings inside the sourcode. Believe me, it is actually quite easy to do so, even if one does not C that well. And just like there are so called white hat hackers (those with the force), there are black hat hackers (the dark side). Or to put it in another way, there are developers that will can be bought by those who would want to hurt the cryptos realm. And the best way to do this? Well, attack Bitcoin in its roots, that is the blockchain itself. A divided community can be ruled, so how to conquer that? Just create a Clone, helped by developers that turned to the dark side. Who will declare SegWit is evil and the miners should control the blocksizes. Set up a website, use some owned poolmining service, create an Initial Token Offering, and buy a lot of them, to pump the price. And start flooding any Social Media Platform.
Just a reminder here that not long ago the Bitcoin Unlimited group and the Bitcoin Core group decided to move forward together, to secure the future of Bitcoin. And what these clone builders are doing is attacking the Bitcoin blockchain and the peace that was signed recently in the Bitcoin realm. What happening here is really a Bitcoin Blockchain Split Attack. And this is something that I have had experienced, several times in a row, with being involved in an Altcoin called Slothcoin. It is a kind of similar in a sense that the attacking miners supported a version of Slothcoin that supported huge payouts per block. The first thing the attackers did was to throw as much mining power as possible at the current longest and strongest version of Slothcoin. First they would need to get at least one block accepted by the network. And at some point it looked like they succeeded. There were wallets that could not seem to get up to date with the right blockchain any more. But more than 99% of the network was already on the latest version of Slothcoin, and that turned out to be important.
Why the attacking clone will fail.
There is some buzz about the first of august being the day that the world of cryptos will know if Bitcoin made it. And if you have followed my blog lately you already know that I am convinced it is already settled thanks to BIP 91. But the supporters of the clone still spread the fear of 'AUGUST ONE IT WILL HAPPEN!'. And then the Ethereum blockchain split gets drawn in as an example. Ah well, if that is the worst case scenario, then let the clone have a split, for goodness sakes, no matter what the intentions behind it are. But that split had an actuall intervention as a root cause. Caused by a programming mistake in a Smart Contract running on the Ethereum blockchain. Even though it can not be compaired to the implementation of SegWit, it shows how desperate the clone supporters are. Or whatever is behind the Bitcoin Blockchain Split Attack, but it will fail, and here is why...
First, mining power and maybe I could already stop there. The whole of the Bitcoin realm is mining at an impressive total of about 6.4 Exa Hashes. That is a big number, 6.400.000.000.000 Mega Hashes per second. Or 6.4 trillion MH/ps, quite impressive right? Currently 97.9 percent of this enormous amount of mining power is signalling SegWit, while already blocks that are coming from a clone are getting thrown away, dumped, or in Crypto lango: orphaned. For the one and only real Bitcoin blockchain they are considered to be trash. So how many blocks did the clone version already find, because it would need at least one block to be able to enforce a split. Currently? Well, a grand total of, hold on, are you sitting down? Here it comes... ZERO, NILL, NADA, NOPPES! Even if already 2 Peta Hashes are wasted on it.
But, it is only 2 Peta Hashes per second! There is only a very small group trying to mine this clone. They are leftovers from the dark ages, wasting their own capital, chewing at their own flesh, losing out on getting a part of the 12.5 BTC that goes at more than 2700 US Dollar. Did they not do their homework? Well, it looks like it, because just finding one block, competing with 6.4 Exa Hashes with less than 5 percent is madness. And then, there is a clone that uses the Bitcoin blockchain, managed to get one block. It will be rejected, orphaned, by the real Bitcoin blockchain. But now the Clone needs to get that first clone block matured. Still with an extreme high difficulty it needs to get this thing to get confirmed 101 times, before the 12.5 clones can be spend! And then, where can it be spend? Only at one supporting exchange that actually seems to have created the Token in the first place?
Room 101 for the clone.
For whatever reason this clone was created, it will fail, it already has, because the blocks will be rejected by the longest and strongest Bitcoin blockchain. Because even if the attack of the clones would get just one block, it would get orphaned. Okay, so it will then have a cloned blockchain with a different last block. But then it will need to create another 100 blocks, to free the found clone BTC. And that takes a lot of mining power, all of the time. To create a longer and stronger clone blockchain it would need at least 51% of the total mining power available after that. And that would have to go on a long time before it will have not only the longest but the strongest blockchain. Meaning a lot of accumulated difficulty backing it. Or more then 3.3 Exa Hashes at least for a long time...
Would the cryptos market risk this to happen? Would the Bitcoin realm majority let a roque client take over? Or is it even logical to see this as a realistic scenario? Well, I hope I was already able to give you the answer to this. Nothing can have a guarantee, but it seems extremely likely that the Bitcoin Blockchain Split Attacking clone will fail big time. Otherwise it would have already have gotten massive support in mining power before BIP 91 started signalling for SegWit. And that one got locked in fast! Just look at the XBT dot EU website that gives you a nice update on how SegWit activation is moving forward. And it looks like the clone is about to go into oblivion, where I think it already went, because it is not getting backed by real serious mining power. And august the first will just be game, set and match for SegWit, for Bitcoin and for the whole realm of cryptos.
Speculation on how or why?
This is not a real issue, because it will probalby never become clear. But, as Bitcoin is the Crypto that is supported by all exchanges as the main market, it can be considered the root of the realm. And somehow this clone might even be seen as good. It is a test for Bitcoin and in that way a learning experience. And a system that could be disrupted by such a minor power backed attack could be considered to have failed. But again, Bitcoin will prove that Cryptos can counter attacks, even orchestrated ones like with the clone version. BIP 91 was just brilliant, it really made me laugh out loud. Really kudos to the ones that came up with that solution. And see what kind of effect it had on the whole of the cryptos market. That is in all of our interest, for holding Steem too. The pittyfull split attack on the Bitcoin blockchain is a just that. It was born to lose.
Some might state that on august the first it will be clear where it will go. If SegWit really will win and if the split was prevented. Well, I just HODL my Bitcoin, like I did when panic hit the market, because of the fear that was spread about a possible upcoming split. But if one likes to see what it happening, then the XBT dot EU site is a good one to watch. The orange part of the circle there is SegWit. And that is backed by 97.9% of a total of 6.4 Exa Hashes of Bitcoin mining power (that is 6.4 Trillion Mega Hashes per second...) And I, for one, won't hold my breath until the first of august 2017. As far as I am concerned it is a done deal already, the good side won; Dance, the war is over!
Have a great one!
PS The attacking clone is still at... ZERO BLOCKS!
