If you had TenX like I did, you may be getting the shivers as the price is declining from the latest all-time-high. You may be right. I just sold mine, and I will tell you why.
TenX tokens quickly stole the spotlight because of a marketing boost of the TenX paymentcard. Obviously they have a great product and idea, and we are all very impressed and looking forward to using this card. Excitement, not to mention rumours of Vitalik Buterin personally investing in this project (it turned out to be a slightly different than that) quickly boosted TenX alongside OMG to multiply several times over. The question now is: How high will it go? Not much higher I believe.
The problem lies in the value proposition of the TenX card. Whilst is sounds amazing and great to receive dividends from payments made by TenX customers, the reality is that the prospects of these dividends is very low. It's a simple numbers game based on transaction volume estimates. TenX makes estimates in their roadmap that are highly optimistic. Current it is estimated there are 10-20 million Bitcoin users worldwide. TenX aims to have 1 million users in 2018, and 10 million users in 2018. With stiff competition on the market, the fact not everybody in crypto will want a debit card, and the fact that half of Asia is paying by phone to begin with, makes me doubt that TenX will be able to achieve the goals set in the roadmap. Even still, if they do achieve their roadmap goals, 10 million users is not a whole lot.
Even if they reach their goals, they estimate $1 billion volume in 2018 and $20 billion in 2019. That means $1.000.000.000 * 0.005 = $5 million USD worth of value to be split among 100 million tokens = $0,05 dividend per token in 2018.
The same calculation for 2019 yields a dividend of $1 per token for the year. While at current prices of $4 per token, a 25% dividend per token is very nice, it would take two years to get there, and you have to ask yourself wether that is really the best way to lock up your money for the next two years and what the competition will be doing in the meantime.
Although projections increase exponentially, wether you believe these depend on wether or not you believe that TenX can grow and conquer the market as they aim to do. I personally believe there will be many players in the market. Even Visacard/Mastercard may one day join the sphere and offer ways to pay with crypto to existing customers. I see no overwhelming reason to believe that TenX will take the world by storm, although the card may certainly prove popular among cryptofans in the upcoming years.
The competition
Take by comparison the value-proposition of OmiseGO, another dividend yielding coin. OMG also offers crypto-payment solutions but focuses mainly on doing it by mobile phone, as is popular in Asia. OMG already has an existing userbase of daily users that is likely several times larger today than TenX anticipates to get in a couple years from now. Not only that, OMG will offer a decentralized exchange for trading cryptocurrencies. A single exchange in today's market can do $500 million USD in transaction volume each day for a large one, $100 million USD daily for a small one. Or $182 billion and $36.5 billion yearly.
Add to that, every other wallet-to-wallet transaction, shapeshifting into and out of OMG, which also creates a transaction fee. All this combined shows that the transaction volume potential of OMG far exceeds that of TenX. While it is true that OMG will likely offer a lower reward than 0.5% to token holders, I believe the sheer amount of transaction volume will more than make up for it. Factor in that the market will grow several times bigger, and trading volumes with it, and the value of an OMG token must clearly be a lot higher than that of a TenX token, based on numbers alone.
Back to TenX..
My argument is not that TenX tokens are worthless. I am saying rather, that they are priced just about right for what they should cost - at this point in time. And this has some future speculation factored in as well, because obviously you'd have to shoot for 2019 to see any good return. The fact that the dividends can be predicted and that they seem to be fairly limited, means the monetary value of each token can by definition not be worth much more than it is right now. I don't see this going much higher than it is now. I did the calculations before, but for a while it seemed like hype might drive the price up some more. Now it seems like that ship may have sailed.
So...?
Although TenX may go up slightly in the short term due to residual hype and daytraders, I feel like it has already peaked. And for that reason, I have sold my TenX tokens and took my profit. Of course I held on for a little too long (I am a hodler after all) but still did okay. I have now put the money largely into Stratis which is at a super low price right now. While it is not a dividend coin per se unless you lock up a lot, it has been very lately overlooked yet is destined to go 5-10x. I have noticed an increasing number of Youtubers started to mention Stratis in the past days as well - I am not the only one who is taking note. With NEO's boom fresh in everybody's memory, I believe we will see Stratis make a similar development within the next six months. There are major milestones coming in Q3 and Q4, and several days ago news leaked about them expanding their marketing team. Especially because of the latter I expect things to pick up very shortly. This is the point where you buy to get in before everyone else does.
My crypto portfolio is now 25% Stratis (my other main choices are NEO and OMG in case you are wondering).