The new budget presented by Donald Trump earlier this week shows that the US government wants to spend considerably more money in the coming years to stimulate the economy.
A combination of tax cuts and new investments in infrastructure and the army, among other things, will bring next year's budget deficit back to over $1 trillion for the first time since the start of the financial crisis. But wait, there's more: it will only get worse from there, because the government wants to spend structurally more money than it receives in the years ahead. As a result, the US debt is expected to pass the $30 trillion in the year 2028, according to the Office of Management and Budget. An increase of $10 trillion.
Trump's own 'Office of Management and Budget' anticipates that US debt will increase by at least $1 trillion dollars for at least the next 5 years.
Trump increases the budget deficit to stimulate the economy, but I highly doubt whether this is a sustainable policy. The US economy has been growing again in recent years and my fear is that further stimulus will lead to overheating of the economy. Trump's stimulation can cause both wages and inflation to rise to fast.
The financial markets were already anticipating Trump's plans, as interest rates on 10-year US government bonds have risen from 2.4% to more than 2.9% since December. It is therefore questionable to what extent foreign countries will be willing to finance the US deficits.
I think the Office of Management and Budget is even on the optimistic side with its projections. A recession has not been taken into account. The total debt in 10 years will probably be substantially higher than what is projected above.
In the end, the US government is simply bankrupt. We all know that the government is never going to repay its public debts. As long as the music is playing, should we keep dancing? The last recession is 9 years ago, so the music has been playing for quite some time now. Historically, a recession hits around every 7-10 years, so I don't expect the music will keep on playing for multiple years.
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"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value: zero." ~ Voltaire in 1729
Sources used:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-12/us-launching-crisis-level-spending
https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield
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