Here's the thing...what I constantly hear is people essentially believing this is a long dip, and are waiting for it to spike past $20k dollars and then continue to rise.. It seems we have rose tinted spectacles as a community.
This seems to me that people in the community are just judging on past performance i.e. it has continued to rise over the last few years and that it will continue to do so. The outsiders are far more cautious and they are who is needed to drive the price.
To give the opposite viewpoint here are the factors I don't believe people are considering:
In terms of awareness, I think it would be difficult to be on the planet now (in a developed region) and not have heard of Bitcoin. The viral spread of hype has slowed and we have to ask the question, has everyone who would buy already got it? New buyers = price rises. If you look at the volume on the markets now any rally is supported by much lower volume than in the past. Only the drops attract decent volume as people sell off.
Retailers are not mass adopting Bitcoin, in fact it is going the other way. People are pulling back - so the adoption curve in mass market as a currency is non-existent. This in the long run is not beneficial no matter what "store of value" conversations are constructed.
Governments have already achieved the fear factor by talking about crypto and hinting at regulation. This is another factor which slows the rate of new entrants, and again, slows the demand and volume.
Bitcoin itself has some user friendly entry points, but it is still through largely unregulated companies. Until those companies are much more transparent the ordinary user is always going to be risk averse
The mass market now understand that volatility goes both ways. Whereas previously the hype was only about the rises, now it's about the dips too. That massively affects the mindset of new entrants, both in how much they commit to the ecosystem, and if they do at all.
All these factors are leading me to think that we are in a period of price stabilization and Bitcoin now is close to a sustainable value. So we shouldn't be expecting major spikes for a long time, if ever. That may not be a bad thing, a reduction in volatility will lead to more real usage, especially if lightning fixes the fees issue.
What do you think? Am I totally wrong? Am I going to miss out on my Tesla Roadster (a more eco friendly choice than a lambo...)