Something very weird happens these days. More and more people seem to talk, discover and ultimately buy cryptocoins. Mostly btc and eth so far but as soon as they research they go down the rabbit hole..and as know here, there's a deep abyss in that hole!
But the most common thing that people say when they finally discover something they think it's going to be huge is:
"I wish I would have known last year!!"
"Am I too late to crypto currencies?"
In essence, everyone thinks they're late to the party. They want to get in but the price is a bit too big for easy access. They check history and are in disbelief. "Oh wow, just last year, it was 11$!!!"
What happens now is that it takes a great deal of decision to get into btc/eth these days because the price gives everyone pause.
A year ago it was an impulse buy - Hell, 10$/eth! sure, let's get 20 who knows?!?! -
Now, it's an investment decision which is a more rational decision and ultimately, almost anyone might decided two things:
- They don't really know or understand where cryptocurrencies are going.
- It's not gonna go up by much so buying now it's useless.
But is any of this true?
Sure, we don't know where crypto is going, but decentralization and blockchain are such HUGE ideas that have such a wide appeal and application that it's almost inevitable that they will start to be used at some point as it was intended. If you think about it, it's a wonder they aren't yet the new normal. But in any case, it seems that this is a technology that is here to stay and has no immediate threat or improvement. If quantum computers don't become a reality, crypto is not going anywhere.
Having said that, does this mean the price will go up?
Hmmm. There's actually a rational way to go about answering this questions. We need to look at the marketcap and at the coin supply. These two very important number can open your eyes to the possibilities. Most people I've seen around here, discussing the price of steem like it's a number attached in the vacuum.
I am as big a beliver in STEEM as anyone and I want it to do well but come on. STEEM at 700$?
Dear god, just because we can post anything doesn't mean WE SHOULD. Also, basing your decision on suspiciously little information is not great but dragging your followers with you in your delusion is criminal!
Let's look at the numbers!
I'll make here an analysis on STEEM.
Right now there's a coinmarketcap of $257,950,581 for a total supply of 250,546,702. Valued at about 1.10$.
Should I buy now?
What needs to happen for a steem to be ...15$. Which is a more realistic, if optimistic, prediction.
Again, we need to multiply the desired price [ 15 ] by the amount of coins and see that Steem needs a marketcap of 3.7billion dollars. This does not take in account the new minted coins, let's not forget that a coin with no cap has inflation. Short term we'll ignore that.
So now we ask..is this even possible?!
4billions seems like A LOT.
Indeed it is.
But now you look at Reddit/Facebook to see how much marketcap is possible and you'll notice that the numbers are a lot higher. In fact, one might think that 3.7billions while a huge number, is maybe even too small for the potential of Steem. Other might say that it will never ever be that valuable. Who's right?
Answering this question is hard, but I think it's almost inevitable that at time goes by, the value goes up as cryptocoins become mainstream. What people don't realize is that those big numbers are not even that big!
[ For the record, for steem to be at 700$ we need a coinmarketcap of about 25billions]
Is this good enough to invest now though?
I think this is entirely up to each person, as they see fit and how much they have to gamble with. But a big number for something you don't necessarily understand is NOT a sign that you are too late. If it has value, maybe one could sigh in relief that they're so early...
Time will tell!