As promised, I'm going to start posting regular updates on how my medium and long term sentiment analysis picks actually performed.
So let's dig in.
The chart above shows how last week's top 12 Alt coin picks performed last week. Obviously the market did well as a whole so I'm trying to account for that. The last item and the dashed line represents the gains of the Cryptocurrencies Index 30, which I'm using as a representation for market performance.
At its height, the CCI30 was up 27%, and closed the week 24% up.
Now, all but two of the coins on the list ($NCASH and $XVG), closed the week up. But this means 6 of the 12 met or outperformed the market when it closed for the week. If you sold at the weekly highs, 8 of the 12 outperformed the market.
$NCASH and $XVG are interesting cases. $XVG had some well publicized news, after which the price tanked as most suspected. $NCASH had some FUD/questionable practices brought up, depending on where you land, which affected its bottom line.
I might try to build news items into this in the future, to warn of potential $XVG situations. $NCASH, I can't do much about. $BNB was just a dud for the week.
But overall, I'm pretty happy with this. I think it shows there's value in the influencers' work, and therefore, some value building into this blind sentiment analysis. I'll keep tweaking. Suggestions and criticism welcome.
Here's the full data:
| Rank | Coin | April 14 Close | Week High | Week Close | High Change | Close Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | OCN | $0.01 | $0.02 | $0.02 | 125% | 121% |
| 9 | ICX | $2.51 | $3.62 | $3.47 | 44% | 38% |
| 9 | DRGN | $0.87 | $1.27 | $1.21 | 46% | 39% |
| 9 | ADA | $0.20 | $0.31 | $0.29 | 53% | 45% |
| 5 | LUX | $7.35 | $13.21 | $12.34 | 80% | 68% |
| 5 | LEND | $0.05 | $0.07 | $0.07 | 36% | 24% |
| 5 | ELF | $0.96 | $1.18 | $1.08 | 23% | 12% |
| 5 | BNB | $13.24 | $13.67 | $13.38 | 3% | 1% |
| 4 | POE | $0.04 | $0.06 | $0.05 | 31% | 21% |
| 3 | VEN | $3.29 | $3.96 | $3.84 | 20% | 17% |
| 2 | XVG | $0.09 | $0.12 | $0.07 | 33% | -21% |
| 1 | NCASH | $0.04 | $0.05 | $0.04 | 11% | -3% |
| --- | CCI30 | $7,217.00 | $9,184.00 | $8,978.00 | 27% | 24% |
The Influencers
Who am I?
I'm an investigative data journalist during the day, and I've been looking for a way to cut through the noise and get a true sense of what some of the biggest crypto influencers are pushing toward and pulling away from.
Using a pseudonym here because I can't post about this shit on my verified accounts. I've become mildly obsessed with crypto and its constant stream of data and needed an outlet. So here I am.
What is this?
Each week, I scrape the Twitter accounts of some of the crypto world's favorite influencers, traders and TA folk. I run a basic sentiment analysis to see which coins they are mentioning positively, in a neutral way and which they are mentioning in a negative light.
I calculate "power" simply by subtracting negative mentions from positive ones to give an aggregate score. The higher the score, the better, the lower the worse. For the daily rankings, I also create aggregate scores for the majors and the Alt markets. The Alts get a 10 point deduction any time the majors go below zero, since overall the Alt-market has a tough time staying above water when BTC is in a spiral.
This isn't financial advice, just my own way of trying to make sense of what's out there. And as with most things, the more data I collect, hopefully, the more interesting it'll be. This is a work in progress. Please leave suggestions on how to make it better. I imagine if I keep up with it, I'll be able to expand a bunch of the analysis, but I wanted to start somewhere.