Well THAT was a surprise to most analysts, wasn't it now....?
BTC pumping HARD a few weeks over the space of just a few days before the halving event in early 2024, I don't think anyone saw that kind of dramatic price action coming...
The predictions get more baseless...
BTC/ USD at 60K: What the critics got wrong and what to expect from here - This article on Nasdaq.com suggest critics who thought BTC would die failed to take into account the innovative nature of BTC in relation to FIAT currencies... basically it allows people to keep their money free from governmental interference. It references the advantages of BTC to people in Nigeria, for example, who can use BTC as inflation proofing against the Naira.
The problem here is that this possibly has very little to do with the pump, if the rise from $50 to $60K is institutions buying into BTC.
The article then seems to pick a range out of thin air for the next high of arond $70-80K, based on an underlying fundamental reason that has probably NOTHING to do with why BTC pumped recently.
And people are allowed to publish this shit...?
BitWise' CEO thinks BTC could reach $250K sooner than expected
Bitwise's CEO gives no time frame for the rise, but thinks BTC will be trading at $80k this cycle...
The article then cites a bunch of other people who think BTC will be somewhere between $150K and $250K at some point soon.
NB... Here's some great logic for you... the BTC price rise faster to $64K than I expected, therefor it will rise to $250K faster than I expected.
OR... I was wrong about what happened recently, therefor I'm going to be right about what's going to happen next.
Oh, and careful with ETF managers predicting BTC prices, OF COURSE they are going to say it's going to go up to insane prices!
Cycle theory done...?
Something I can get on board with is this....
I don't know who his is, but Samson Mow points out that IF BTC hits an ALT in the next hours or days, this means the 'cycle theory' of BTC is broken and there are no rules to guide what can happen next...
So what to do...?
If you're just sitting on BTC you bought back when it was $30K or less then just pick your out targets. Personally I'm gonna dollar cost average out slowly, and if it dips maybe buy some back.
Another option I am going to explore is collateralising BTC, taking out some stables, putting those into HBDs, and then buying back more BTC if it dips... that way you can take some profits without actually selling BTC, skim the 20% return and use that to buy back the BTC. Obvs it's less than just pure selling, but it's another option.
I'm in no position to advise on trading strategies, I don't do that, it's too anxiety inducing for me.