Interesting points, but i don't think it's fair to compare adoption rates to Steem just yet seeing that most people can't even buy the coin right now. I also don't think that transaction speed is the sole reason why people are invested in it long term, either. I would, however, agree with you completely that hype around the thing has reached the early "euphoric" stage.. but this is not really enough to convince me that the thing is a classic "pump and dump" or that this WILL dump hard. Even when Verge started selling off, it still didn't drop to even half of pre-pump levels.. or how about the crazy pump on Power Ledger(POWR), 100% purely driven by hype? POWR predictably deflated back down, however, it also didn't take long to gradually rise back up to it's all time high(less than a month). Did either Verge or Power Ledger die? Did investors forget about them quickly to move on to the next popular flavor of the week? Of course not and it won't happen with RaiBlocks even IF it "dumps" as you say. Why do you think this is?
The classic pump and dumps of the old penny stock days and now crypto always have the exact same characteristics. Very quiet flat trading chart for months with no development progress, then a sudden and sharp 2-3 day pop up to get that spark going, followed by an immediate gap down to half of the initial pump, then sometimes a rapid swing in both directions once or twice to bait more newbie fomo buyers, and finally ending with either a fast or slow bleed out as volume dries up(ReddCoin is a good recent example). While RaiBlocks DID rapidly grow in December, it started off very organic and if you take a closer look there wasn't that much selling pressure on the thing even as it started doubling in price before it went into the hype overdrive today. This lack of short term dumpers to me tells me that there are more long term believers in the thing than there are quick flippers. A good sign. The chart looks way more like Power Ledger an less like ReddCoin. Remember, time is accelerated in the crypto world. 1 month in stocks = 1 day in crypto.
On the tech fundamentals and adoption:
One thing I learned from the stock market world is that fundamentals aren't a bullet proof way of determining whether or not market sentiment will drop on a stock or that one company will win over another. RaiBlocks might not be solving an immediate demand right now in the crypto space(this is to address your comment about RaiBlocks not doing anything that is in current demand at the moment) but people are invested because they believe that the value of what RaiBlocks attempts to solve will be more relevant eventually.. Everything comes down to your time frame on when you are expecting a ROI. People are invested in Tesla and Amazon even though they are still not profitable companies at the moment and are currently trading at high multiples of their forward earnings. It may not seem rational, but this doesn't really matter if enough people believe that they WILL be profitable in the long term. There is what many will claim should be the "true value" and then their is perceived value. The second matters way more. Remember, VHS won the battle against Betamax. At the end of the day, the old Maynard quote still applies, "The market can remain 'irrational' for longer than you can remain solvent."
RE: Why Raiblocks Will End as a Pump & Dump