Let's begin this post about cryptocurrencies on a strange - and morbid - note. Let's talk about suicide. Let's talk about when someone chooses to take their own life and end it all.
What has this got to do with cryptocurrencies?
In the coming years, after the current 'buy anything you want and make a lot of money' cryptocurrency gold boom is over, I predict there will be a high rate of suicides among amateur, and even professional, investors. The promise of a quick gain, for no effort, with incredible returns is the trigger to that gun.
Ask yourself, what will happen to you if your cryptocurrencies don't reach the moon? How will you work a normal job when you are used to the idea of high returns with no effort?
Veterans of the Vietnam war, the guys who actually survived the jungles and lived to come home, had a high casualty rate when they returned home. Soldiers kept dying even though the war was over for them. Suicides went through the roof because the horror of war caused mental conflict to the point they were unable to adapt to a normal, everyday life. Despite it being a safer place to live than in Vietnam. Mentally Vietnam vets were wired for war and adapting to a normal life was all too hard for what they had trained for and become accustomed to.
And the word "accustomed" is the key to this article. What have you acclimated yourself to? Rising graph charts and ideas of infinite wealth spirals?
Let's talk about another group of people who have adapted to another type of war zone. A less lethal one but still the cause of a large amount of unnatural deaths each year. Stock brokers and bankers are also another high risk category and the suicide rate to this day is alarmingly high. So well known is this phenomenon that most people has heard at least one joke about stock brokers jumping off buildings. The running joke is that the world is better off for it but behind the jokes is actually a very real death rate. There are real people dying from stock broking.
Why?
Stock brokers had grown accustomed ( there's that word again ) to the world being a certain way - rising values of portfolios. And then one day, that is no longer the case. Unable to adapt to massive losses from financial gambling, because they had grown accustomed to the idea of massive wealth and a 'job free' lifestyle, many choose to end it.
Mentally and emotionally they have trained themselves for massive profit and grown accustomed to the idea as a norm. But what happens if you train for years for something and you realize that it never is going to be real?
That is the question many speculators are going to have to ask themselves because not everyone in cryptocurrency investing is 'going to the moon'. As competition becomes tighter to enter the market place and startups going bust because they can't compete with titans like Facebook who enter the market, large amounts of coins will fall to zero in value.
Right now, new ICO's are springing up every day. The soil is fertile and it's raining investment money. But it won't always rain and startups that have grown deep roots and grown in market share. Thus choking out the weedier, immature coin offerings that had the vision but no real connections.
Being a gardener, i do like a good plant analogy but it holds true.
Wall Street is littered with ghosts of professional stock brokers who actually made tonnes of money and then went bust. One wrong trade, too much greed and not knowing when to cash out of the profession and into a nice, cosy retirement in the tropics has killed many a professional banker and broker. If the pros check out, what hope do amateur cryptocurrency investors have who were starry eyed and banked on never working a job again?
Why so morbid?
As I mentioned earlier, this article is part 2 of my last one about smart vs dumb investing. After writing it, I began reflecting on the outcome of dumb investments and the loss of a lot of time and money. On reflection, I came up with this one. While this is not a blog post that makes you laugh or shows you what coins to buy, it's probably one of those articles that you need to think on and digest for awhile.
How are you invested mentally & emotionally? What fantasy projection have you grown accustomed to? Is your portfolio of dreams vs realities evenly spread?
Right now, #Coinbase is the most downloaded app on the Apple appstore. Which tells you that floods of people are buying the 3 coins they offer, most presumably Bitcoin because it's the one they know. There is a flood of newbie investors - which will grow exponentially over time - who have lived with austerity for the past decade, desperately mortgaged up to their eyeballs and are looking for a quick buck. Then they find their way into the current cryto gold boom and it appears to answer all of their problems and their dreams at the same time.
Problem solved.
So people, enmasse, are adapting their thinking to a life of high returns. When the desperation of their financial situation still remains unsolved. Debt festers beneath a promised fortune and this is the psychology of many. The idea of guaranteed, skyrocketing returns could ( and will ) so easily lead to disappointment. More people will be crushed than saved by Bitcoin because of a lack of understanding, high expectations and a less than solid asset portfolio.
How many portfolios are based on starry eyes, desperation and promises of high returns in Bitcoin... and how many are strategic, solidly planned and smart? The first groups destiny is lead by the market. The second groups destiny is lead by themselves.
As pointed out in my last article, being invested in cryptocurrencies does not mean being invested in the right things. In my mind, even holding onto a skyrocketing cryptocurrency is not the aim of the game. Buying life experiences leading a better lifestyle is the aim of cryptocurrency investing. I couldn't care less about exponential gains in Bitcoin if my real life sucks because I have poured everything into it. That is not exactly intelligent.
My own strategy is regular cash outs and diversifying into other asset classes such as the farm / plant nursery I am going to buy with Bitcoin. Where I will set up shop and sell a physical good for another type of return.
I am sober to what digital currency is. And what it is not. It is not my best friend. It's not a guarantee. It's not my master.
What if you have invested all your money in flashy startups who get smashed by Facebook or another giant ICO? What happens to people who think that their bank balance will always exponentially climb? What happens to the people who find out that the coin they were HODL'ing is in a downspiral to zero?
In my last post I talked about the difference between immature and mature or smart investing. This post is a 'part 2' because I really do wonder about the aftermath of the current gold boom and the large amount of amateur investors who will get wiped out because their strategy did not change in an ever changing market.
Suicide rates will be high in the cryptocurrency world after the boom is over, as awful as it is to predict.
Along with 'smart investing', an investor has to be mentally & emotionally prepared for both extremes of outcome. And have a 'plan B', an exit strategy should their be a fire in the crypto markets. The best way to tell if you have a solid game plan is to ask yourself what your 'plan B' is? What would you do if you had to quit cryptocurrency investing? How would you live? Would you thrive just the same?
The ability to thrive after crypto investing is a sign that your investment strategy is solid.
I would guess that most people would find it hard to adapt after a life in the crypto markets. After the endorphine highs of rising bar charts is replaced by a mundane, 9-to-5 world. While I am sure that you can handle a massive fortune all by yourself, no problems, my mind turns to those who set their mental & emotional compass to an ever climbing bar graph.
This post is a somber one and not a cheery subject but it is one to discuss. It is one to ponder over if you are going to build a robust portfolio for yourself that looks after you, rather than you look after it. Build yourself a colossal portfolio of smart investments built on a rock solid mental & emotional foundation. Do that and you will be rich.
With all the focus on the shiny gold coins, I highly doubt anyone really gives a damn about this post and the idea behind it. To each their own. But I would like to see you, dear reader, stay alive long enough to drink martinis on a yacht somewhere. Or alternately, live in your crappy apartment, working a low paying job and still have a good life.
Thanks for watching,
Brendan Rohan - Indie developer of 'next gen' natural medicine from Melbourne, Australia
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DISCLAIMER: This article is written by an amateur investor and is offered purely for information purposes. This is not financial advice and you should always seek the advice of a finance professional.