One favorite will advance to the 2018 World Cup semifinals, while the other will see their dreams prematurely come to an end. Brazil and Belgium will meet on Friday at 2 p.m. ET with a ticket to the 2018 World Cup semifinals on the line. Brazil enters Friday's clash against Belgium at +110 on the money line, meaning you'd need to bet $100 on a Brazilian victory to win $110. Belgium enters this quarterfinal fixture at +265 (wager $100 to win $265), while a draw in regulation is at +240. The over-under on total goals scored in this 2018 World Cup match is 2.5. Brazil is 9-4 to win the entire tournament, the best of any country, while Belgium is listed at 5-1 World Cup odds after opening at 15-1.
Sportsbooks list Brazil as a -180 favorite (risk $180 to win $100) to advance, with Belgium at +150 (risk $100 to win $150). In three-way betting on regulation only, Brazil is +105, Belgium is +270 and the draw is +240. The over-under for total goals scored in this 2018 World Cup match is 2.5.
Before placing any bet, you need to see who European football expert David Sumpter is picking. Sumpter is an applied mathematician and author of Soccermatics, the book that explains how math works inside the sport. Along with other experienced analysts, Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.
The Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In nearly three seasons since its inception, the Soccerbot is up an incredible 1,800 percent on bookmakers' closing odds.
The Soccerbot has been rolling through the 2018 World Cup knockout stage. It correctly predicted draws in regulation for Spain-Russia (+280), Croatia-Denmark (+225) and England-Colombia (+215) and was all over Brazil and Belgium winning in regulation. Earlier, the model nailed draws for Argentina-Iceland (+385) and Brazil-Switzerland (+360) and predicted Iran upsetting Morocco at +275, just to name a few of its big calls. Anyone who has followed it is way, way up.
Now, the Soccerbot has digested the film, crunched the numbers and broken down every single player on Brazil and Belgium. We can tell you the model is leaning under 2.5 goals, but its much stronger pick is on the money line, which it's only sharing over at SportsLine.
The model has taken into account that Brazil and Belgium have played each other four times, with Brazil winning three of the four matches. The teams most recently met in the 2002 World Cup knockout stage, where Brazil earned a 2-0 victory.
The five-time World Cup champions enter Friday's quarterfinal with a ton of confidence. Brazil has scored seven goals in Russia 2018, while allowing just one. And Brazil star player Neymar is in top form and will be looking to cause problems for Belgium's back line, which allowed two goals against Japan. Neymar scored and provided an assist that put the game out of reach for Mexico in the Round of 16.
The model also knows that Belgium is led by powerful scorers such has Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard and has tallied 12 goals thus far in the World Cup 2018. Belgium has not lost a competitive international match since manager Roberto Martinez took over in August 2016 and is eyeing its second World Cup semifinal berth.