All who are vocal that Bitcoin will go to zero value (eventually), their sole argument is hinged on the expectation that governments will crush Bitcoin. Some argue that Bitcoin can only be used as money which government will never allow, through capital controls, imprisonment threats…etc. Nor can it be used as a store of value (like gold) since it has no intrinsic value backing it.
Lets look at possible actions governments and central banks can take against Bitcoin
• Stop fiat/Bitcoin transactions:
Governments can decide to restrict people from buying Bitcoins using fiat, and selling Bitcoins for fiat by shutting down centralized exchanges.
This has already happened with the recent action of the Chinese government shutting down localized exchanges. Ironically enough, fiat/Bitcoin transactions continued on OTC markets and the F.U.D. was short lived in the global Bitcoin markets. In fact, decentralized exchanges are now becoming popular due to risks of such capital controls.
Prohibiting people from purchasing Bitcoins, via credit/debit cards, wire transfers with threats of imprisonment - is a possible action if governments feel threatened. These extreme actions will most obviously affect the price of Bitcoin, with many Bitcoin users leaving the market out of fear, and all speculators running off to legal investments – BUT this will not kill Bitcoin.
Do not forget that the internet is the fastest growing market, with the largest population of any nation in the world. Any extreme action from one or all governments cannot control what happens on the internet. Hence Bitcoin ecosystem can continue to grow on the internet.
Take into consideration the growing Bitcoin developer community, who are tech driven, and highly competent. The Bitcoin developer community is the largest and most experienced group in the crypto space. They include progressive innovators who are moving us towards a decentralized monetary system running on the internet. Where value and services can be exchanged using Bitcoin and other decentralized cryptocurrencies. An autonomous, transparent, secure internet monetary system – separate and outside of the current central bank and government controlled monetary system.
• Stop Bitcoin mining
How about a government ban on mining of Bitcoins? They can shutdown mining pools, but will they be able to apprehend individuals mining ? All they can do is pass a law to make mining illegal and perhaps even imprison/fine someone as a warning to other miners. Again, as long as there is a financial incentive supported by Bitcoin users on the internet, they will find a way to continue mining. In fact, organizations, companies and governments are entering the mining market for strategic profit growth.
• Introduce government backed cryptocurrency
Central banks will most likely introduce their own cryptocurrency. Whether it is forced upon the masses by attempt to make Bitcoin illegal or promoted as a stable dependable cryptocurrency - they cannot stop Bitcoin software running on the internet and the innovation that will come with it.
Most people will not understand nor be aware the government backed crypto as being a centralized system not very different from the inflationary and controlled fiat system of today. As such, I expect a lot of people accepting government back crypto …at least in the beginning. If the disruptive economic manipulations from central banks continue, faith in government backed crypto will wane. And the appeal for a deflationary, decentralized and secure form of money, away from government and bank control, such as Bitcoin, will be valued.
In conclusion,
I do not see how central banks nor governments can crush Bitcoin. They certainly can impact its price in the short run, slow down the adoption with FUD or even outright persecution. Unless they can achieve absolutism or shutdown the internet permanently, they cannot stop it.
With the unavoidable pace of innovation on the internet, coupled with economic, geopolitical, financial uncertainties fuelling populous movements even revolutionary disruptions – Bitcoin can only get stronger, especially with its deflationary characteristics. Its usage as money or a store of value is determined by users needs and perceptions – for those fighting for freedom under authoritarian regimes, and for those trying to survive hyperinflation and for the billions without access to banking services, it is used as money. For those merely planning to hedge against an uncertain future, it is used as a store of value. The investment corporations smelling a profitable market will sell it as a financial instrument. And yes, governments tempted by tax collections, will classifying it as a security.
Considering the current trends, I think this is just the beginning with many battles to be fought and the volatility that will come with it.
There is only one way Bitcoin can be crushed - it is by the Bitcoin community itself …and no one else.