HOUSTON ROCKETS @ MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES - VEGAS LINE: ROCKETS -6
Minnesota was able to get the job done in a must win game 3 at home. Tonight, these two teams will again square off in Minnesota in what is another must win game for the T-wolves. Lets first take a quick look into how Minnesota was able to get the job done on Saturday. They played with tremendous energy and got very efficient games from Towns, Teague, Butler, Wiggins and most surprisingly Derrick Rose! Rose played 21 minutes off the bench and contributed 17 points, 2 assists and 2 steals. There aren't many people out there who still believe in Rose, but luckily for Minnesota fans, D.Rose has all the confidence in the world in himself. He must play this kind of basketball for the Wolves to have any kind of chance in game 4. Not only did Minnesota benefit from a lopsidedly officiated game, they also shot a red hot 55% from behind the ark making 15 of their 27 attempts! The Rockets, who are a much better three point shooting team, made a respectable 36% of their attempts going 15 for 41 but could not keep pace with the exceptional shooting performance.
I expect game 4 to go quite differently. The rockets are a much better and deeper team. They shoot a higher percentage from the field and from three. They have more impactful star players in James Harden and Chris Paul. Teams who get ahead 2-0 or 3-0 in a series can sometimes lose their sense of urgency and combined with their opponents new found sense of urgency (and often questionable officiating) they can have a let down game and lose. That's what appeared to happen to the Rockets in game three. They should come out with much more energy and I expect Harden, Paul and Houstons perimeter shooters to all be much more effective tonight. They do not want to let this series get evened up at 2-2.
I'VE GOT HOUSTON IN GAME 4, -6 POINTS.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER @ UTAH JAZZ - VEGAS LINE: JAZZ -4
What a series this is turning out to be! Ricky Rubio was simply stupendous in game 3 and ROOKIE Donovan Mitchell is flat out ballin' on Russell Westbrook, the reigning MVP! The Jazz have flown under the radar all season long and people are STILL sleeping on them. This is shaping up to be the best series of the first round. Coach Quin Snyder has Utah playing superb basketball all season long and tonights game, to me, is the most important game they've played all season long. In my eyes, this game will determine who wins this series! Utah is VERY good at home and if they win tonight, I think a 3-1 deficit will be too much for the Thunder to come back from. Conversely, if OKC is able to steal this game in Utah, they will have tied up the series 2-2 and have taken back home court advantage and will have stolen all the momentum heading home for game 5 which I think will result in the Thunder winning this series.
What to expect from game 4? One large factor in a game of this magnitude is experience. The Jazz are still a very young team and although several of their players played in the post season last year, they do not have the kind of experience that the veteran filled Thunder team has. Now, I'm not much of a Westbrook fan personally but I don't let my feelings get in the way of making money. I expect a HUGE game from Russ, likely a triple-double type performance. I also cannot see Rubio duplicating his performance from game 3. I expect much more energy on defense from the Thunder, especially from Westbrook and George. Perhaps the biggest matchup to watch is going to be Adams vs Gobert. The Jazz big man is a top defensive presence in the league, Adams cannot allow Gobert to ALSO out play him on the offensive side of the ball and needs to limit his points in the paint and offensive rebounds. I find myself feeling much more confident in OKC tonight and I'm also getting 4 points?
I'VE GOT OKLAHOMA CITY TONIGHT, +4 POINTS.