The probability of bitcoin collapse is 80 percent.
MarketWatch senior corner writer Mark Hulbert says the virtual money has increased the price of Bitcoin from extraordinarily since the beginning of the year to close to 10 thousand dollars but it is over 80 percent of the probability of collapse in the near future. HALBERT HAS DECREASED AT MINIMUM 40 PERCENT DURING TWO YEARS Hulbert bases his negative scenario on Bitcoin on a recent work on earlier situations where commodity prices have soared rapidly in the near future. The balloon in the "Fama Balloons" work published by the National Research Agency (NBER) at the beginning of this year is defined as at least a 40 percent drop in prices over two years following a hard rise in two years. "If the price increases by 100 percent or more, the probability of a fall in the next two years is 50 percent. If the rise in asset price is at least 150 percent, the probability of collapse is 80 percent. As prices rise steeply, the decline is "almost certain". The 2,500 percent rise in Bitcoin over two years is more than ten times higher than the top price increase corresponding to "almost certain" according to researchers. Hulbert, however, thinks that researchers are considering the stock market, and that digital money is not a matter of working, but that the result is also applicable to Bitcoin because of the length of the data set subject to research. Hulbert adds that your study does not give different results to the US or other countries in stock markets at different times. "HISTORICAL UNIQUE" Hulbert emphasizes that researchers are unable to find out whether the probability of collapse is dependent on any underlying indicator, which is critical to Bitcoin: this is a key detail; Bitcoin's followers insist that Bitcoin's foundations are unique, and that the historic pioneers do not comply. On the contrary, every previous balloon accompanied similar claims, such as 'history uniqueness'.