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SteemSports Editor:
Impact Additions:
Carlos Santana, Tommy Hunter, Fernando Abad
Key Departures:
Freddy Galvis, Daniel Nava
Projected Lineup:
2B - Cesar Hernandez
CF - Odubel Herrera
1B - Carlos Santana
LF - Rhys Hoskins
RF - Nick Williams
3B - Maikel Franco
SS - J.P. Crawford
C - Jorge Alfaro
Projected Rotation:
Aaron Nola
Jerad Eickhoff
Vince Velasquez
Nick Pivetta
Ben Lively
Projected Closer:
Hector Neris
Pat Neshek / Tommy Hunter
The Phillies are a difficult team to get a gauge on heading into 2018. They return the majority of the players that finished in the cellar of the National League East in 2017, though there seems to be reason for optimism given the amount of young talent in the fold. They also made an interesting move by going out and inking Carlos Santana to a massive free agent contract, despite already having Rhys Hoskins and Tommy Joseph both capable of playing first base. That’s not to say that Santana is a bad acquisition, because he certainly makes the lineup stronger as a whole, especially with his monster on-base percentage. With Santana in the mix, Hoskins will shift to left field full-time, which shifts a very talented and capable Aaron Altherr to the bench.
This entire offense is suddenly legit. Sure Crawford and Alfaro are raw, but both are immensely talented. Adding Joseph and Altherr off the bench, and this has the makings of one of the best offenses in the National League. The question will be, can they pitch enough to remain competitive.
Aaron Nola is already a stud and capable of leading a young staff into postseason contention. He took a massive leap forward in 2017 and I anticipate him to be even better this season. Nola owns the best curveball in all of baseball and is likely to run his K/9 over 10 in 2018. Very few pitchers in baseball own an elite strikeout rate and an elite ground ball rate, and Nola is one of them.
Behind him, it gets sketchy. Eickhoff and Velasquez are obviously talented, but have had trouble with walks and home runs in their limited big league careers. Pivetta and Lively aren’t even as polished as the previous duo yet and could be a hard sell for a contending team. What the Phillies need to do, and have been rumored to do, is get another starting pitcher. They have been linked to Lance Lynn, Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb this winter. If they can land one of them to slot in behind Nola, you could have something here. The bullpen should also be improved in 2018 with the additions of Tommy Hunter and Fernando Abad.
Fantasy Sleeper - Jorge Alfaro - C
Jorge Alfaro is going to be a star in this league, but for whatever reason the fantasy community at large hasn’t bought in yet. That’s great for me, as I have been scooping him up around the 20th round of 15-teamers for months now as my second catcher. The 24-year-old has power for days and slashed a robust .318/.360/.514 with five homers and 14 RBI during his cup of coffee with the Phillies last September.
Fantasy Bust - Rhys Hoskins - 1B/OF
Blasphemy! I know. I’m not doubting that Hoskins can repeat the prodigious power that he flashed in 2017. I think the power is very real. His ADP is sky-high at the moment though, going around pick 45 overall which puts him at the end of the third round in 15-team drafts. Even with the huge power, he’s going to deliver only a neutral batting average and shouldn’t chip in much in the stolen base department. He’s a very exciting young player and terrific for the Phillies, but I can’t justify a third round pick on him this year.
Team Projection
I’ll be honest, I’m intrigued by this offense. They’ll be a fun team to stack in DFS this season at likely far too low ownership. As far as their chances of putting together a magical season and competing for a playoff berth? Stranger things have happened. If they can secure a guy like Arrieta/Lynn to go with Nola at the top of the rotation, and either Eickhoff or Velasquez take the next step, I could see it happening. I see this as between a 75-85 win team, definitely not the cellar dwellers from a season ago.
