Everywhere you look in the financial news about Greece, the numbers are positive. The OECD? Greece ranks first. Morgan Stanley? Optimistic. Bloomberg? Talking about faster debt repayment. Eurobank? Seeing investments return. Even the European Commission, despite putting on the brakes a bit, acknowledges that the economy is holding up.
And all of this is happening at the same time. At this point, we are not just talking about isolated headlines anymore. We are talking about a pattern.
FIRST IN INCOME GROWTH
Let me start with a statistic that, honestly, surprised even me.
The OECD published its data for the fourth quarter of 2025. And which country recorded the largest increase in real household disposable income across the entire OECD? Greece. Up 3.3% compared to the previous quarter.
“So what does that actually mean?”
In very simple terms, it is the income households have left in their pockets to either spend or save. And that income increased more than anywhere else.
And to understand how significant that is, the OECD average was just 0.7%. In the United States and Germany, income remained flat. In Italy it fell 0.9%. In France, 0.2%. Across the G7, meaning the world’s strongest economies, the needle barely moved at all. Just 0.1%.
And for the whole of 2025? Greece posted a 1.8% increase in income. More than double the OECD average of 0.8%, and well above France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Italy.
And keep something else in mind. All of this happened before the tax cuts announced at the Thessaloniki International Fair even came into effect at the start of the year. At the same time, unemployment is sitting at its lowest level since 2009.
MORGAN STANLEY’S FORECASTS
And this is where things get even more interesting. Because it is not just us noticing the strong numbers.
Morgan Stanley, one of the largest American investment banks, released a report saying clearly that “the story of Greek economic outperformance is not over yet.” The bank forecasts GDP growth of 2.1% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027.
In other words? Above 2% growth for the next two years, in a Europe that is growing at a much slower pace.
But why? Morgan Stanley explains that the minimum wage has risen significantly, wages in general continue to increase, and the labor market remains tight. The result? Private consumption between 2019 and 2025 rose cumulatively by 15.5%.
And this is where many people ask the obvious question. “What happens when the Recovery Fund ends in 2026? Won’t investments fall off a cliff?”
Morgan Stanley’s answer is reassuring. First, part of the Recovery Fund money will still not have been fully absorbed and will continue flowing into the economy. Second, after the RRF, the EU Cohesion Policy funds will step in strongly. So the investment flow does not suddenly stop.
And let’s mention this as well. Since the launch of the RRF, fixed investments in Greece have increased by more than 45%.
DEBT REPAYMENT
Now let’s move to the third point. Something that, just a few years ago, nobody would have imagined.
According to Bloomberg, Greece is considering repaying its public debt even faster. The country has already scheduled an early repayment next month of €6.9 billion in bailout-era loans. And now it is reportedly considering allocating even more funds, either through additional early repayments or bond buybacks.
“And how is Greece able to do that?” you might ask.
Very simply, because the money is there. Greece is running high primary surpluses and budget surpluses overall. In other words, government revenues consistently exceed expenses.
And notice something else. Even though Greece still has one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world today, by 2026 it may no longer be the most indebted country in Europe, as Italy is expected to overtake it.
At the same time, a Eurobank study shows that net investment in Greece reached 3.9% of GDP in 2025, up from just 2% in 2022. Within four years, the country’s capital stock increased by €26.4 billion. Greece recovered 29.8% of the losses suffered during the 2010-2021 period, when €88.7 billion in fixed capital was wiped out.
In simple terms? Greece is investing again while paying down debt at the same time.
THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION HITS THE BRAKES
Of course, there is a major “but.” Because not everything is perfect.
The European Commission is preparing its spring forecasts and, according to reports, is revising Greece’s growth forecast down from 2.4% to 2.0%. Not a dramatic downgrade, but still a downgrade.
“And why?” you might ask.
Two reasons. First, the Middle East. As long as there is no agreement between the United States and Iran, energy prices remain under pressure. And Greece is one of the Eurozone countries most dependent on imported energy. Second, inflation. In April, it was running at 5.4%.
Even so, the fundamentals remain strong. The primary surplus is expected at 4.9% of GDP in 2025. Public investments are projected to exceed €17 billion, and debt is falling to 138.2% of GDP.
So yes, challenges still exist. But the foundation looks solid.