Keep your distance, but stay social

We find ourselves in a slightly surreal world where everything is shutting down and people are told to keep their distance due to the COVID-19 Coronavirus. The measures being implemented in many countries are unprecedented, but then the threat is still uncertain. About 100 years ago the so-called Spanish flu killed anywhere from 17 million to 100 million people around the world. The lack of data makes the death toll uncertain, but it could have been as high as 6% of the world population. Today that could equate to nearly half a billion people!

No pasta! It is not the apocalypse yet. Actually there was some lasagne.

Of course medical knowledge has come a long way in that century. There is a good chance we will develop a vaccine, but that takes time and will need extensive testing and so it could be at least a year. Most deaths have been amongst older people with existing conditions, but that is little comfort to those of us with friends and parents in that category. We all know people with asthma, diabetes and other conditions who could be vulnerable. I am speaking as someone with no medical training, so people check with authoritative source for more details. I am going by what I have read and heard on some science podcasts.

Hive account@arseniclullaby write a post about the Imperial College study that has been guiding at least UK policy. He points out that they lack accurate data to base their models on. From what I know of epidemiology it is largely about statistics and that field has to take unknowns into account. The use of charts with absolute numbers may imply they know exactly what will happen, but I would expect others in the field would know that cannot be true. I have not read the whole report, but I do not think it is aimed at me. Politicians should be speaking to scientists to judge what measures are likely to be effective. The numbers will be constantly changing anyway as this epidemic is only a few months old and the situation is changing rapidly. The numbers from places like China may be affected by political influences who prefer to control everything and be seen to be in control. The mortality rates may vary by country according to how many people get diagnosed. Are there any experts on Hive who can educate us?

I was listening to another podcast today where they were saying that 'herd immunity' is not a great strategy when you have no vaccine as you need people to get infected and then deaths are inevitable. Boris Johnson's claims about getting through this in 12 weeks are pure speculation.

As for my personal situation, things are fairly okay here for now. There has been panic buying with some goods being difficult to find, but I believe the supply chains are still working. There will be those who seek to profit or will stockpile for selfish reasons. The 'preppers' and those who made a 'Brexit stash' may be feeling particularly smug right now and thinking 'I told you so', but civilisation has not broken down yet.

I have been going into work where the company has taken measures to keep things running. They have divided us into teams who should avoid contact to reduce the chance of cross-infection. Many people are working from home, but I cannot for now. The office is looking empty and the trains have been very quiet. I can get a seat with some distance from others unlike before where I had to stand. I expect the train services may get reduced to save money and cope with lack of staff.

Most big events and many smaller ones are being called off. Hive account@steemcampuk is postponed and there is no parkrun. I just heard that my half marathon in May is off. Our pub sessions and open mic nights are on hold for now and that is getting people down as you cannot replicate that vibe elsewhere. We did our best by having a Facebook watch party last night where we posted performances and watched them together. We will look at doing collaborative recordings and other projects to keep our enthusiasm going.

We are fortunate in having the technology to connect with people in real time. I expect new ideas to crop up over the coming months. The networks may struggle under the extra load, but I see some video services are cutting the quality a little to get by.

Stay in contact with people, especially those who are on their own. Look out for your neighbours. Share what you have with those in need. This is not a time to be selfish as that is what will cause society to break down.

Be well and be kind.