We continue our examination of the less fashionable teams in the UEFA Nations League and on Friday at 19:45 GMT we have Gibraltar v Armenia in League D. There is just one promotion spot available, currently held by the FYR Macedonia on 9 points. These two teams need to win to have any chance of topping the group and progressing to League C. Liechtenstein are not out of it mathematically but would require everything to go their way including a win against the leaders in what is the other contest in this group. The only scenario that works for Liechtenstein is a precise set of results that leaves all teams on 9 points, this is extremely unlikely.
This really is a must win game for both sides as a draw will be no good, if the current leaders beat Liechtenstein away from home. If Gibraltar win they will have their destiny in their own hands but it will still be a tall order, they have -2 goal difference to overcome, whilst FYR are currently +3, though each goal will be counting double when they square up.
Should Armenia win they will then be needing a big favour from Gibraltar in the last fixture, whilst they themselves would need to beat Liechtenstein away from home. This is not certain, since Gibraltar lost 2-0 in their second fixture away to Liechtenstein, if they hadn't won against Armenia away we would only be talking about a two horse race in this group.
Gibraltar will hoping their goalkeeper Goldwin has another good game, he was the star man in their win over Armenia in the away game. Armenia will hope that their Arsenal star Mkhitaryan can provide another good performance from midfield and that their strikers put away any of the chances they create.
Verdict
This is a tricky tie to predict, Gibraltar already beat Armenia away so will be feeling super confident they can do the same again at home, if you look at both teams form, Gibraltar are poor at home and equally Armenia are poor away. However I am going to go with Gibraltar winning here, they have won their last two matches and have won 2 out of their last 3 home games and that will be the difference. All this points to Gibraltar having the edge here.