Here is a collection of facts and thoughts on bitcoin which will help those considering whether it should be part of their asset allocation.
Bitcoin. Altcoins and ICOs are to blame for the price fall.
The year-and-a-half decline in the bitcoin price was caused by Alt-coins and ICOs. Issuers of alt-coins received bitcoin or ethereum and spent two years selling them to pay the bills.
Argentines made a profit.
Not every bitcoin owner lost money. If an Argentinian had bought Bitcoin at the highest point of the "biggest bubble in history", in 2017, he would have been better off than leaving his money in his Argentinian bank account.
How bitcoin soared this year. Keep your gold!
Recently the price has been rising from the bottom around $3’300. Bitcoin had a lot of resistence between $5700 and $6300. The consensus was that it would be hard to go higher. It took just a few seconds to bust it. Now it is trading close to $8’000. The view is growing that $3’316 was the bottom.
The bitcoin price is now at a crossroads. Every rise above $8’100 is met by sellers who drive the price lower. Every dip below $7’900 sees buyers coming in. Who will win, bulls, or bears? Maybe neither if this is just the same money going around in circles. Keep your gold!
Fantastic for traders.
The price of bitcoin is extremely volatile. It is probably the most volatile traded asset on the planet. For example, in the last 2 years (730 days) there were 17’520 hours. In over 2000 of those hours the bitcoin price was more than 5% higher or lower than 12 hours previously.
In the last 10 days there have been at least 6 opportunities to make 5% to 10% for nimble traders in volatile Bitcoin. There have been the same number of opportunities to lose 5% to 10%. I never trade because there is a good chance I would have been in the latter group.
The coming halvening
In approximately 1 year (est 22nd May 2020 at 14:45:45 ) bitcoin will go through a “halvening”. The number of bitcoins produced will halve. Bitcoin inflation will drop from 3.78% p.a to 1.89%. Miners will earn half as much unless the price doubles.
Bitcoin owners are rarer than millionaires.
If you own a single bitcoin, congratulations.
You own more bitcoin than the majority of millionaires on this planet own now or will ever own in the future.
There will never be more than 21 million bitcoin. With 40 million millionaires they can’t all have one.
Many bitcoin holders are “Hodlers”.
There are around 731’000 bitcoin addresses which hold at least one bitcoin. Many have had no withdrawals in the past 4 years. In other words, they watched the price soar and then collapse without being tempted to sell.
Last bull market
This is how fast bitcoin moved:
$8000 - $10000: 11 days
$10000 - $12000: 7 days
$12000 - $14000: 1 day
$14000 - $16000: 1 day
$16000 - $18000: 8 days
Lows:
2012: $4
2013: $65
2014: $200
2015: $185
2016: $365
2017: $780
2018: $3200
2019: $3316
Spotted d**k for desert? Could be on the menu if $1 million isn’t reached.
Famous former owner of the McAfee Anti-Virus software company says the price of bitcoin will reach $1 million in 2020. He says he will eat his private parts on live TV if it doesn’t get there. How likely is it that spotted d**k will be on his menu next year?
Answer: He’s said to be a billionaire. There will only be 52’000 bitcoin mined over the next year. At $8000 per bitcoin, he could buy every single one of them and still have half a billion dollars left. He could move the price just to make sure he doesn’t lose the bet.
Bitcoin trading strategy
I have found the perfect bitcoin trading strategy. Every time the charts tell you that bitcoin is about to soar and go much higher, you should sell. Every time the charts tell you that it’s all over and the price is set to plunge, that is the time that you need to buy.
I am so conflicted by this that I choose not to trade.
However, If you find you often lose, try doing the opposite to what you think.
Conclusion
None of the above is investment advice. You could lose all your money in any investment, including bitcoin. Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose. Stay very diversified. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. If you want to make a price prediction keep the date to yourself. Don’t promise to eat your d**k