How long do we really have? We know things are moving quickly which makes it hard to pinpoint how much time is remaining before the establishment implements a refined system that grants them even greater power and control.
This is the "Great Race" that we are facing. The existing system is doing all it can to protect itself while those who are involved in the development and growth of cryptocurrency are trying to pull it down.
Essentially we are looking at technology people versus the banks and governments with the later being the one that ultimately matters. Politicians will abandon the banks if it is in their best interest.
The answer to this question might be coming out of China. This is a country that, when it comes to payments, is already much further advanced the rest the of the world. Most of their transactions are not only digital, but done on mobile devices. This often occurs through applications such as WeChat.
It is also a country that is pushing ahead with CBDCs. The already ran a trial in a couple individual areas to gauge the response. This puts them far ahead of the rest of the world, where this is mostly in the discussion stage.
A Chinese official, Li Lihui, has come out and stated that he does not believe that the digital renminbi will replace anything that is offered by WeChat, Alipay, or traditional bank cards for the next 10 years.
“I predict that in at least the next ten years, Alipay, WeChat Pay, and bank cards will still be the main payment tools.”
He further added that he believes the Chinese people will eventually decide what the national currency is.
Certainly, there is the prospect that he is incorrect. However, it is a bit surprising that, in a country like China which is known for its top-down, centralized planning, that it would be the people who decided what the national currency is.
So there is a basic timeline that we can operate from. Of course, it might be healthy to move it up a few years to be safe. Logically, this forecast makes sense. People tend not to realize how long it takes for major societal change to happen. Technology is often available long before the mass embrace it. It is far more difficult to get people to change their habits.
At the same time, we have to watch where the innovation is coming from. One of the problems the major banks had is that FinTech took a lot of business away from them over the years. This was because innovation was flowing from the start ups such as Quicken while the major banks conducted business as usual.
This seems to be a major advantage in the Great Race. The innovators are the ones who will make the difference. Those building are apt to find a sweet spot where their particular project takes off. Success often comes at the detriment to the incumbent companies.
When it comes to technology 10 years is a long time. With cryptocurrency, just look at how far we advanced in just the last 5. Ethereum, the second largest blockchain by market cap, was just coming into existence then. That means we basically were introduced to smart contracts only a half decade ago.
The big change could come in January, when Facebook releases the Libra. This is going to cause a shock to the entire system. While none of us can really state how this is going to turn out, the fact that Facebook, with its associated applications, has over 2 billion (some estimate it could be as high as 3 billion) users. That is an enormous segment of the total population and an overwhelming number of the online crowd.
While all the talk is of CBDCs, this could be one of the first major blows to the traditional banking system. The Libra is going to instantly make every Facebook users "banked". A wallet will allow anyone to send, receive, and store money that is backed by the USD. The question is how long until this is accepted as a form of payment?
This move could make the rest of cryptocurrency even more valuable. As people get accustomed to digital payments in this manner, it will make adoption of the other decentralized ones even easier. At the same time, Libra presents the regulators with another target other than Bitcoin. In this instance, they have a healthy foe as we see how the mega-technology companies already believe they are bigger than the government regulators.
Essentially, this is going to provide the cover for other projects to keep developing and growing. Thus far, Bitcoin was the one out in front getting all the attention and, by the same token, taking all the arrows being fired. Now, we could see a new game in town that becomes the focus.
The Great Race is on and it is being waged each day. As stated recently, the advantage that the crypto world has is that the development and innovation is coming from all corners of the globe. There are thousands of coders out there working on stuff. It appears we are nearing the point where a lot of isolated projects are starting to be bridged. Here we see the collective improvement for all.
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