Beyond our comprehension how the moneyline on this game isn't -1,000, bc that's about what it should be. You know that Community Chest card in Monopoly, the one which says "Bank Error in Your Favor Collect $200"? See the expression on Uncle Pennybags face? That's us looking at this Indiana Pacers vs Lakers game, we're surprised and we feel like the bank is just giving us money.
Let's see why we're feeling like the world just gonna hand us some hundos...
#1 Took his BALL but sent the LAKERS home
If you weren't an early reader of our blog, you probably don't understand how much we value Lonzo Ball as perhaps one of the all-time greats. Needless to say, this isn't even hidden news anymore, as the Lakers without Ball have been nothing short of the worst team in the NBA-- which is what they were before they signed Ball. This is not a dig against all the players and potential on the Lakers, it's just that they are all better when Lonzo is playing. This has a LOT to do with defense, but also just how he changes the entire game by setting up offensive players to play above potential and disrupting the other teams offense and pace.
#2 Per Nance you must be joking coach?
We liked where Walton was going earlier in the season when he was starting Nance, but when Nance went down with injury he dropped that tactic and is now paying for it the most with Ball absent. Nance is probably the biggest disrupting force on the Lakers, he makes plays no one expects on both sides of the court. Like perhaps Robert Covington, the team is just so much better when he's getting minutes. Despite an ABSURD amount of injuries, Nance STILL isn't getting minutes.
#3 Crutches
Ranking the Lakers injuries as THIRD best reason to take Indiana, isn't a typo, it's properly ranked. While Josh Hart has been a polarizing force off the bench, starting is a much different ballgame. Hart for Pope is the BEST of the substitutions. Kuzma & Ingram are questionable, and we really see no good reason why the Lakers wouldn't rest them as both are part of the Lakers future. Lay down Lakers, that's what's best for your future, there's absolutely no reason to play with even 95% health. If there's ever been a chance to showcase Brook Lopez and Luol Deng (is he still on the team??), tonite's the nite Magic Johnson. Unlike say losing Lillard but gaining Napier, none of the Lakers substitutions will be a surprise improvement. We're talking Ennis and Brewer and Clarkson. While we admire their talents, they just aren't the types to rise up and win one while the glue guys are out. Even if Ingram and Kuzma play, we simply aren't excited about the large home-field advantage the Lakers have.
It's at this point, we still really can't believe the line: -2 to face this tattered herd?
#4 Punters giving too much respect to draft order, home court advantage, and Pacers back-2-back.
Look, we like all these things like the next folk, but Brandon Ingram is still just a clay mold of what he's to become, and home-court and back-2-backs are quantifiable advantages which don't come anywhere near the point deficit we think the Lakers are encountering in this game. We have Indiana winning by no less than 21 points despite Lakers having a few upsides here. In fact, we think the line is improved thanks to these factors, as well as Indiana's horrible loss last night, and it makes us want to plunk even MORE money down on this game.
#5 Myles Turner effect
Do we like Turner? We sure do, he's young and tough. But do we think he's irreplacable force? Negative. The punters think so, and have discounted the Pacers since he went down. Turns out Sabonis, Thadd and Bojan along with Al Jefferson can make up a lot of slack. So we think Myles Turner being out is probably one of the biggest reasons this game is such a freebie. This time, it's YOU rolling Monopoly dice like you can't lose. Lakers landing on "Pay School Tax $200".
What can go wrong?
#1 About Last Nite
It's time to refer to last night's game, a game in which we bet 0.25% on Indiana to upset Portland at home. What did we get wrong? (we didn't post our pick on Steemit bc our confidence was just way too low, and our respect for Lillard way too high). What happened last night? By quarters, it really just came down to the 4th quarter last night, as game was tied after 3. Portland has been playing on fire lately, Stephenson was suffering from food poisoning and went 0-6 and lacked his normal spunk on defensive end, and an altercation between Oladipo and Nurkic may have unsettled Oladipo during winning time (2 min left with Pacers down 8 points thanks to a rotten start to 4th qtr -- see Stephenson illness). The biggest effect probably the Stephenson sluggishness, something a win-hungry junkyard dog like Napier just feasted-on. Smokes, what DIDN'T Napier do this game? 2 blocks (he's 6 foot nuthin), 2 steals, 4 rebounds (he's the BACKUP point guard folks!), 3 for 3 from the FT line, 2/4 from long and 2 assists in 29 minutes. In fact, shame on us, if you read our last Portland Trail Blazers post, for betting against Portland. But we still think the game was closer than it seemed, and Indiana will be just a little bit healthier AND much more hungry-- wanting to avoid back 2 back losses. If they can't beat the tattered Lakers, shame on everyone in Pacerland. While Indiana lost by 14, they missed almost half their free throws, normalized they should have had another 3 points at LEAST, and made only 27% from 3-- normalized that's another 5 points. You normalize this game and give Lance his full health, and remember Indiana was GETTING 4 points last night. Lastly, Portland made 100% of their free throws, worth another 3 points minimum.
Against the Lakers, we'll accept the loss of momentum for Indiana, who's new Turner-less starting unit won the previous 5 out of 6 games (losing to a red hot Miami Heat) including wins vs Cleveland and the Greek Freak.
#2 Lakers backup players getting starts read this article and get ticked off... 1983 NC State Valvano happens.
Since this will be one of our bigger bets here, let's compare our small punt last nite to tonite:
We had Indy losing to Portland by 1 point, not knowing Stephenson illness. Had we known about that, we could've easily been convinced Portland would win by 7, and that's before the free-throw dichotomies and missed 3s.
Tonite we have Indiana beating Lakers outright by 21.5 points! That includes home court advantage, back-2-back factoring, injuries, the works. Even if Stephenson is lead-footed again tonite, Indy still got this. We literally have to restrain ourselves to betting just 10% of AUM on this one. We'd prefer to bet 20-25% but are skittish due to losing that Nuggest Suns game (thanks to the incredibly odd coaching skills of Malone... see this swell Mark Deeks article: http://www.givemesport.com/1239473-why-are-the-denver-nuggets-trying-to-solve-their-power-forward-glut-with-a-centre )
We SHOULD be giving the points, but we like to take every precaution, even giving up extra earnings to do so, so moneyline.
Steemians,
We sure hope this outsized bet turns out better than our last one, wishing for FAIR REFS above all else in this game.