Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Time for another BTC update
My last look at BTC was already 4 months ago and so far it has anticipated the market movements quite well. Here is the outlook from back then:
I think separating the market into these 3 phases has been a very good insight (nothing new ofc, but it's nice how it fits into the chart). This would suggest a continuation along the widening channel for the next 1.6 years or so with a more pronounced upward movement towards the end of the cycle. Should this happen once again, it's a rather curious phenomenon that this continues to happen as expected. But maybe BTC has just gotten so big that manipulation is very difficult.
Now let's look at what happened:
Price has essentially moved exactly in the middle of that channel - a very good model so far! I have zoomed out a bit to show a bit more context. At this point in the last cycle we were now just going through the "corona panic" which had BTC dipping to $3k again. That was an anomaly and price would have otherwise stayed between $7k-$9k. In other words, should we not have a black swan event, it seems perfectly reasonable to assume that price will continue along the channel outlined above.
Should price evolve in a simliar fashion, we could probably expect it to move something like this:
We'll probably stick around that average until the end of 2024 when we would enter the "bull run climax" phase. As you can see I got a high $400k target in the chart. With the supply crunch we are already seeing now I am starting to think that is a very reasonable target for this cycle.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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