Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Can't believe my last post about BTC was 7 months ago!
My blog has taken a bit of a back seat in recent times since I have more work to do, but I still want to continue posting every once in a while (not sure if it can be one post a day again).
In this post I want to take a look at what I wrote last winter and see if it holds water. Here is the post and here is the last chart I made:
Since it is a very broad projected path for BTC it would be shocking if we weren't on track somewhere in this range. Here is the updated chart:
Not bad! Price has essentially stayed exactly in the outlined boundaries. So far so good. There is still room for a weekly close at around 48k with a potential wick even lower. If it falls lower than that this outlook would be invalidated. But since we are already at the bottom of this widening channel, chances are that price will go up again. Probably greatly so as well - especially since we are now at the golden time period where historically price has exploded. Most are saying this will be October/November this year.
In June I also made a rough path for how price could be moving in the next year or so. And it has also been largely confirmed. As you can see I am expecting an impulsive growth in price at the latest in December/January.
US elections
With time the synchronization of BTC's halving and the US elections has gained importance. Especially now when the polarized world is faced with extremes. The US will quite literally decide with this election if it (and the western world) will head towards restriction/control or expansion/freedom. It seems clear to me that a Trump win would usher in an explosive crypto bull run and a Harris win a mediocre one at best.
Conclusion
BTC is still on track to $100-$400k in 2025 and while that doesn't look like that big of a difference (only a 4x), it could highlight a big shift in crypto sentiment and the alt season.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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