On October 15 2017, the first year of testing for our earthquake forecasting model came to a close this details here number one first here are earth's fault zones and blue overlaying a one hundred year heat map of large earthquakes these are the regions that qualify to be part of the model and the first rule of the model is about how much of the faults can be placed on the left no more than fifteen percent of global faults may be identified as active at any one time there is a further limit of twenty percent of the Ring of Fire because otherwise you could just load the fifteen percent into the ring of fire and cheat with your statistics here is what one of those maps might look like, and we come to our first important point these alerts are currently informational not actionable we're trying to work towards that point but right now cannot constrain the highest risk enough to call for action too much of the world is on alert and with that is the case no one earthquake can be very telling either we will expect to get some hits but if the hit rate is wildly higher than the fault coverage or opportunity to get a hit then we may have something to more rules the most recent rule in the highest alert rule let's say I have your city on alert for a week and then I take it off and then the big one hits that city one minute later it is a Miss only the latest and most recent alert map counts no looking back days and time in cheating and for the highest alert ordering those alerts star Red Alert and then everything else we've used lots of colors when there is a lot to watch in the coming days so here despite the red lines only alert star counts as highest alert and that is the only area that may take success on this map if I deleted the star the three red marks in the ring of fire would activate as the highest alert to see how that works so here is our statute for year on the full list of forecasts and earthquakes and coverage percentages is founded Quake Watch .net but for now keep it simple and just died the most important earthquake.
Of the last year this is pretty self-explanatory It's the largest quakes in the world and in the U.S. and Europe at the bottom the date, magnitude location and whether or not it was a hit, let's run down the top five here number one, of course, was that eight point, one that just struck Mexico last month as you can see nothing super special or psychic didn't call out the city, but the region in Mexico in Red did take that hit numbers two and three were seven point nine so that both struck Papa New Guinea both times that region was on red alert but
Again, not like we called out the city specifically Number four a seven point eight in New Zealand that was downgraded from a right just eight point zero reading again in the red zone, so let's go to number five which was a mess a seven point eight in the Solomon Islands snapped take a look at the four places alerted on the map in total top four quakes of the day struck around those locations high five hit South America six point zero eight the red line in China and the six point six at the red line in California seven point eight in the Solomon
Islands being the only mess almost got all the top five and with number five since you saw the California quake this map you saw earlier that was indeed the posting active for the six point six in Italy last year, so here are the stats and I'll take us down the list we had eight main shock seven pointers and sixty three sexes aftershocks and four shocks are not part of what we're seeking here the model TADS six and thirty three of them respectively for success rates at the Seven and six magnitude range of seventy five and fifty two percent respectively we Indeed, expect the percentage to go down as magnitude does due to the wealth of things that can trigger smaller quakes versus the fewer that precede larger ones folk coverage ended up at fourteen point one for the ring of fire and nine percent for the whole world since all magnitudes seven events hit the ring of fire the fourteen point one percent chance of success is used I rounded up to fifteen percent just to play devil's advocate. Make it a little harder on ourselves and indeed we're still looking at extremely significant statistical results for of the Top five, six of eight magnitude seven hits and the biggest quakes in the continental US in Europe folks the last thing I want to share is what you can feel free to say versus claims you might think up yourself like I said earlier, this is not god like prophecy, it is a small baby step in the right direction and we claim nothing more on that front the statistics are sound and indeed the fault coverage expectation of success was dwarfed by a factor of four when it was actually put into play the model is still informational only but I assert with the most force that what has happened here merits further investigation by official sources but only if they want to predict earthquakes.