On the hourly analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, price has come a quite a ways from the $6,150 level I was looking at just 10 days ago. My targets I haven’t touched since my last post have also have turned out to be relatively accurate from a pricing perspective, however a little off in the timing.
The screenshot below is of the last week or so in the pricing action and you can see the steady price consolidation over the last few days, since the big pop in price last Tuesday July 17th. Price has bounced around between a range of those black horizontal lines at $7,500 to $7,275 with $7,375 acting as a good median support.
In the evening yesterday, that median black horizontal support at $7,375 provided a good springboard for the rally overnight to $7,730 where price is sitting around today. The orange 55 EMA and 100 EMA also did a good job to support price at these levels and keep the bullish rally intact.
There’s been some good volume and volatility around these levels today and price has successfully hit the Fibonacci Extension at 1.5 $7,727, all the way up from $6,077 at the C-Fibonacci Retracement Level.
The price action from 14:00 EST today has a bullish spinning top candle where the bears pushed price all the way down to the 1.382 Fib level in an instant at $7,597, however the bulls eat quickly back up. This could just be someone taking profits, but the demand is still strong from the bulls.
I could see additional profit taking over the next few hours around these levels with the turquoise 21 hour EMA acting as support near $7,625. The volume overall is still strong here, and I think a push up to that old target at $7,825 and the red down-trending resistance is still on the docket.
The RSI is toward over-bought at 59.42, but still has some good strength as downward price action is resetting the indicator quickly. The MACD looks bearish, but could also quickly turn the other direction.
The on balance volume (OBV) is also continuing to trend higher as well which is a good sign that price will continue to trend higher, since volume typically precedes price.
On the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, there is a lot to talk about her but, I will keep it brief today. The inverse head and shoulders bottom I kept discussing turned out to work great, however the big battle ahead is the $7,857 level at the 1.618 Fib Extension that is converging with the black 200 day EMA and the long-term red down-trending line.
I don’t think price will breach that level in the next 24 hours however, if it somehow does I would caution patience for a retest of the red line. I would not be surprised to see a lot of consolidation around that level while price hugs that red line for a few days.
I placed an up-trending pitchfork on the pivot from $5,755 and subsequent swing high from July 7th and swing low from July 12th and you can see how it’s been containing price nicely so far. Today, price has stopped right on the top side of the purple channel.
There could be an attempt for price make a run at the outside of that pitchfork at around $8,100, but I think a revisit to the bottom or the purple channel at $7,600 is much more likely. I have put in two new red targets, where we could see price over the next few days.
RSI is now at 70.08 and sitting in overbought territory which hasn’t been seen since December 18th. Even the overboughtedness from April 24th only capped out at 69.61, so this price action is significant.
MACD and OBV are also looking great right now too. More tomorrow.
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