On the hourly analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, you can see how price has been tracking the levels in this downtrending pitchfork quite closely. The pitchfork starts from the pivot high on July 24th and takes the swing low from July 27th to the swing high on July 28th.
It has now been over two weeks of price bouncing around in the pitchfork and it is now pressuring the outside of the red channel that could potentially lead to a breakout. However, price did stall around the $6,445 level from 3-5 am EST this morning, with 3 big wicks running through the top of the red channel and pitchfork. The bears put up a big wall there and look to take control over next 24 hours.
The trend the past few days for the bears has been to reach lower lows each and every time that price heads south and right now I see no reason to expect otherwise.
There is strong bearish hidden continued divergence marked on the RSI indicator with a lime green line, and it appears likely price will at least revisit the $5,885 level, maybe around the top of the upper blue channel in the pitchfork and the .618 bearish Fib Extension.
Price was overbought on the hourly RSI earlier today, but has come down to 57.75 currently. The bulls have defended $6,225 at the blue horizontal line well, and that could be a potential bounce point for another small bull rally if RSI resets to oversold levels, but this appears unlikely.
The MACD indictor is about to have the blue trigger line break bearishly under the orange EMA line and the histogram is already down ticking below the zero-bound. The OBV is additionally not strengthens much at these level either.
On the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, you see the bulls efforts yesterday to defend that $5,892, where there is a big hammer candle placed in there and a subsequent bullish rally up to $6,481 level. It will be interesting to see where today’s candle ends up because I don’t think it will remain so bullish.
It is nice to see the volume remaining relatively strong and the bearish volume decreasing slightly in respect to other recent big red candles, but I think the bears are waiting to see how well the bulls defend this positions first.
It is possible that price does rally over the next 3-5 days back up to the red long-term downtrend line at the $6,700 - $6,800 and we end up with a corrective wave before another wave down downwards to the lime green support line at the .786 Fib Extension at $5,181.
The turquoise line on the RSI indicator is still a reminder of that strong hidden bearish divergence related to price. RSI tapped 30.79 on August 8th and has had a tiny bit of bullish reversal divergence from there, but it would be nice if price could have a new closing low with the RSI giving a higher low to confirm that.
MACD does appear decent for a bull rally where the blue and orange lines are converging again, but it still has bearish momentum on the southern side of the zero bound and could continue lower.
OBV has really dropped off, and does not look great either. I am staying out of this for now to wait and see if we can get some more conclusive information.
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