On the hourly Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, I have been tracking this down-trending pitchfork that started back on July 24th and price has been moving outside of it for the past 2 days now. Price did dip back inside the upper red channel of the pitchfork, but found support at the orange 55 EMA line as well as the up trending blue line I have drawn.
There have now been about 3 retests on the outside of the pitchfork that have provided support and price is moving away from this bearish down-trend. That blue line compared to the black horizontal line at $6,500 make an ascending wedge pattern, which typically breaks upward.
Over the past few hours, there are maybe 4 wicks running up through that $6,500 level as the bulls are really putting increasing pressure on the bears. I have also drawn a purple up-trending line showing the price increase since 5pm EST yesterday and giving additional support.
The orange 55 hour EMA line is sitting below the turquoise 21 hour EMA, which is another bullish sign and the 21 EMA is also providing some price support as well. I have also placed pink two parallel lines that are indicating a bullish flag. Price has broken out of this level, but perhaps needs to retest it again, before heading higher. That could be a level around $6,384.
RSI is relatively neutral here around 55.62 and could head either way. The MACD lines are flat and could roll over bearishly, but are still sitting above the zero bound bullishly. The histogram has a steady down-tick, but has three sets of higher lows, so further downside could prove to be limited here as well.
The OBV also looks stronger from where prices were earlier in the week and could be a good sign. It would be good for the bulls to see volume increase significantly again on any price breaks above that $6,500 level.
On the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart that big hammer candle from August 14th proved to be significant in rejecting that $5,892 level at the long-term .618 Fibonacci retracement and as of now there has been just a steady grind higher.
If price does breakout higher a good target would be that red down-trending line around $6,800 over the weekend. However, if price does get there and the bulls cannot drive price higher then I would see a potential big head and shoulders top with the neck line at the blue horizontal line at $6,225.
The bears would like that and we could see shorts begin piling in again. Overall, there are many people looking to short Bitcoin right now as well that may be new to it and looking to take advantage of the potential precipitous breakdown. I could see a big short squeeze occur depending on what the contracts look like when we get to that period.
Ideally, for the bulls a rally back above that orange up-trending line at $7,200 would be hopeful. As of now, price has put in a higher low from June 24th at $5,755 to August 14th at $5,858, which is a good sign for the bulls.
RSI is sitting at 42.99 and presently above the black horizontal support/ resistance line and there is some moderate hidden bullish divergence that I have marked with the pink line there.
The MACD EMAs are curling upward bullishly and the histogram is ticking upward as well. It is still below the zero bound, so the momentum is with the bearish still, but things are encouraging in the short-term for the bulls. OBV is trending higher in the short-term as well.
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