Good afternoon my friends.
Bitcoin again bounced nicely off approximately 6000 and by the chart below you will see key support here. We are writing less frequently of late but last Wednesday at 6425 we wrote we are no buyer here and with sentiment at 78 percent bulls (DailyFX) the likelihood was to again decline to support at 6000.
There is a lot to like on a longer term basis but my point is SENTIMENT (and this is almost to the minute is BAD. You may not want to believe in "its" importance but you can see that since January at 15,000 and every 1000 plus point move in either direction, we have been "on it." (look it up.)
The dilemma for me is there is reason to "bounce" off 6000 but we are at 79 % bulls as I write and I won't forecast any reason to buy here. My "buy" at 5850 end of June was met with "sell" about three weeks later with a well over 30% return..
My question to you (and there are astute followers here I greatly respect) are we going lower and how much so? As you may know I let the market dictate rather than say "It's 4000" etc.
The Dow Jones: I maintain the odds favor new highs this year. Realize I said Sell in January at 26,400 and saw a great buy and called it in late June, about 24,100.
SENTIMENT at this moment is bullish. Put/call ratios are of the best in the last two years and about where they were in Late June. The last call was BUY and it remains...beware there are very dark clouds on the horizon. Turkey is just a small spec. I expect a troublesome 2019. Debt is just so out of control it is absurd and can't continue. And I believe we are playing right into China's hands. That discussion is for another time.
Now for the real FRUSTRATION, below.
I tell it like it is or at least try to and stated worst case lower 1200's and a Sept. bottom. Am I Frustrated? You bet. Heck I was bullish at about 1300. Of course I've mention RON ROSEN for a while. And he is (my opinion) the best I've ever read. Find his "freebie" on 321 gold about weekly. He has not wavered from 1140 in November
and then a surge of massive proportions with new highs in 2019.
I can tell you (and see the chart above) SENTIMENT and COT reports are where every major bottom has lied. We now have the best readings (Commercials covering ) easily since '08. In fact I heard an interview with the legendary Jimmy Rogers recently and he reiterated that he was not buying at 1300 but expected a move closer to 1000 and he'd be loading up. Rogers expects (going forward) big dollar Issues and China to be very much in control! Gold? He expects it to be phenomenally higher. Actually he prefers silver!
Above see the Commercials, the most bullish in 10 years. They are about the best lead indicator. Your patience will be rewarded, but it has not been easy.
Thanks for your support, as always.