U.S. intelligence agencies are working to predict how Iran will react if U.S. President Trump unilaterally declares that he won the war in Iran, Reuters reported on the 28th (local time).
According to Yonhap News Agency, Reuters, citing two U.S. government officials and one other source anonymously, said the analysis was being conducted at the request of senior Trump administration officials.
The purpose of the analysis is to understand the impact of President Trump's withdrawal from the war in Iran, the sources explained.
Some Republican election strategists and administration officials are worried that the war in Iran could lead to a crushing defeat for Republicans in the midterm elections scheduled for November this year.
No decision has yet been made on whether President Trump will declare a unilateral victory, and while the military operation may be strengthened again, observers say a swift easing of tensions could ease political pressure.
However, if that happens, Iran's momentum could be revived, rebuilding its nuclear and missile programs and threatening U.S. allies in the Middle East.
It is unclear when intelligence agencies will complete the analysis.
However, Reuters said the agencies had conducted an analysis before predicting how the Iranian leadership would react if the United States declared victory.
If President Trump declares victory and reduces military power in the region, it was analyzed by intelligence agencies in early March that Iran is likely to regard it as its victory, a source said.
At the time, the source said that if President Trump declared victory in the U.S. and maintained a large-scale military deployment, Iran is likely to see it as a negotiating strategy and does not necessarily think that the end of the war will take place.
The war in Iran began on February 28 with a surprise bombing of Israel and the United States against Iran.
After the Reuters report, the CIA's press office did not answer specific questions about what kind of analysis it is currently doing on Iran, giving an explanation that the CIA does not know about the intelligence agency's analysis results.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), which oversees U.S. intelligence agencies, also did not express its position.
Anna Kelly, a White House press secretary, told Reuters that the United States was still negotiating with Iran and "would not rush to a bad agreement" and that the president would only agree to prioritize U.S. national security and that Iran could never have nuclear weapons.
However, American public opinion about the war in Iran is overwhelmingly negative.
In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week, only 26% and 25% said the military operation against Iran was worth the cost and that it made the United States safer, respectively.
In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on the 24th and 27th and released on the 28th, President Trump's job performance approval rating was 34%, down from 36% in the previous survey (15-20 days of the survey).
In the report, sources said Trump is acutely aware of the political cost he and the Republican Party are paying for the war in Iran.
#Trump #End-of-war #Declaration of War #Iran War
Lim Soyoung (ysoy@ikbc.co.kr )
As time drags on, Trump is no longer in a position to continue the war.
Now, it seems that the best course of action he sees is to declare this war a "victory" and bring it to an end.
It is truly heartbreaking that the world suffers from such misguided and unilateral decisions.