[Herald Economy = Reporter Seo Ji-yeon] Although U.S. President Donald Trump reiterates that the end-of-war negotiations with Iran have "entered the brink," the gap between the U.S. and Iran is still not narrowing on the key issue of handling highly enriched uranium. In particular, the U.S. seems to be emerging as the biggest challenge in negotiations as it maintains its position to secure Iran's highly enriched uranium directly.
President Trump said at the White House on the 21st (local time) that "we will secure it" and "we will probably destroy it after that."
"We will not let Iran possess highly enriched uranium," he said, reaffirming the position that the U.S. should take control directly.
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Mostaba Khamenei made the remarks shortly after foreign media reported that Iran had banned highly enriched uranium from being shipped overseas. In fact, the Korean government has flatly rejected Iran's request.
Currently, Iran's 60% highly enriched uranium is known to be around 440 kilograms. The international community evaluates it as a "quasi-nuclear (準) weapons-grade" material that can be converted into a nuclear weapon-grade material within a short period of time.
For President Trump, securing this material by the United States could be the most symbolic and visible outcome of the negotiations. This is because it can highlight the political message that a stronger agreement was reached than the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA) during the Barack Obama administration in 2015.
In particular, analysts say that the process of disposing of actual materials by taking them out to the U.S. could be a powerful political PR tool for President Trump. This means that it is a card that can alleviate fatigue and high price public opinion caused by the prolonged war.
Iran, on the other hand, accepts the export itself to the U.S. as a symbol of the regime's submission.
Iran is known to be partially open to the method of diluting it by low-enriched methods in its own country and the management method through International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections. Before the outbreak of the war, such a compromise was also discussed during the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
However, experts say that the scenario in which the U.S. takes uranium directly is the picture that the Iranian regime is most trying to avoid.
Recently, there is a widespread perception inside and outside Iran that "North Korea with nuclear weapons was not attacked by the U.S., but Iran without nuclear weapons was attacked." As a result, some analysts say that Iran should maintain at least its nuclear weapons development potential.
In addition to the enriched uranium issue, differences between the two sides still remain in major issues such as whether uranium enrichment rights are recognized, the period of suspension of enrichment, and the scope of dismantling nuclear facilities.
However, in some cases, there are signs of change in the atmosphere on the U.S. side. Some news reports suggested that the U.S. is open to allowing Iran's nuclear activities for limited peace on the condition of IAEA inspection. On the 20-year suspension of enrichment reportedly proposed by the U.S., President Trump also recently made remarks to the effect that "that would be fine."
The market believes that President Trump is likely to hurry to declare an early end to the war once the basic framework agreement is reached. This is because if oil prices and price pressures continue due to the prolonged war in Iran, it could be a burden for the upcoming midterm elections in November.
However, experts believe that uncertainty over the final settlement is still high, given that the issue of handling highly enriched uranium is actually close to President Trump's "red line."
Russia is taking advantage of this opportunity. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly proposed a compromise on Russia's transfer of uranium, as he did in the 2015 nuclear agreement.
However, President Trump recently publicly dismissed President Putin, saying, "Care about the war in Ukraine."
Seo Ji-yeon, sjy@heraldcorp.com
"Enriched uranium has ultimately become the final justification.
We’ll have to see whether the U.S. can enforce this and secure the grounds for ending the war.
I hope this exhausting war comes to an end even a single day sooner."