Half of 2020 has passed and I'd like to make a short recap of my forecasts for 2020 (made here: @zuerich/15-forecasts-for-2020-15-prognosen-fuer-2020).
# Politics
no. 1: Pete Buttigieg wins the Democratic primary elections in the US.
- wrong
no. 2: Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November 2020.
- we will see 🤡. Today I'd rather say that a third candidate like Kanye West could prevent both Democrats and Republicans from getting a majority...
no. 3: Angela Merkel steps down as Chancellor - officially for reasons of personal health, unofficially due to internal party pressure (to give her successor time to present herself as "Chancellor Material").
- not until now, but still possible
no. 4: The Brexit actually happens.
- debatable, but rather true as of 31 January 2020 (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brexit-britain-leaves-eu-230007150.html).
no. 5: There will be no (relevant) trade deal between the US and China.
- true, but just until now. Remains to be seen.
# Economy
no. 6: The dollar continues to rise, from the current 96.80 to over 100 (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy?mod=watchlist_ticker).
- was partially true (high of 102.99 in late March), but dropped afterwards. I still think the USD will rise far more. But this remains to be seen...
no. 7: The Dow Jones rises from the current $ 28,645 to over 33,000 (but could afterwards drop lower just as quickly).
- not until now, but still possible (Corona wasn't on the table in december 2019).
no. 8: A large European bank (e.g. HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, UniCredit, BNP Paribas, Santander) becomes insolvent and must be bailed out.
- not until now, but still possible
# Crypto
no. 9: Bitcoin hits $ 30,000 during the year.
- not until now, but still possible, though I doubt it.
no. 10: Bitcoin's dominance continues to increase, from currently 68.2% to over 75%.
- not until now, but still possible
no. 11: Steem rises from 78th place to the top 50 again (https://coinmarketcap.com/).
- Due to the hijacking of Steem, we now have Hive 😀. If I remember correctly Hive was temporarily in the top 50. Currently it's not, but I remain confident.
no. 12: Steem reaches 2 million accounts in total (currently 1.35 million) - very daring, I know ...
- I am not sure about that, but I think there are still less than 2 million accounts.
# Others
no. 13: Croatia will win the European football championship.
- Won't happen.
no. 14: Protests / demonstrations continue to increase in number and violence (Hong Kong, Yellow Vest Movement, etc.)
- True, especially Black Lives Matter.
no. 15: I will continue to accumulate bitcoins and Steems (stacking sats) and become an Orca.
- True (but a forecast I can enforce).
So, in summary out of 15 I already have 2 wrong, 3 correct and 10 are still open.
Have a nice day!