Dear Hivers,
2020 has passed and, hell, what a year! I'd like to make a short recap of my forecasts for 2020 (made here: @zuerich/15-forecasts-for-2020-15-prognosen-fuer-2020).
Politics
no. 1: Pete Buttigieg wins the Democratic primary elections in the US.
- clearly wrong.
no. 2: Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November 2020.
- clearly wrong, too (though there are people who still can‘t believe it).
no. 3: Angela Merkel steps down as Chancellor - officially for reasons of personal health, unofficially due to internal party pressure (to give her successor time to present herself as "Chancellor Material").
- wrong. I think COVID-19 gave her a boost for her last year in office.
no. 4: The Brexit actually happens.
- rather true, the transition period ended on 31 December 2020 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit).
no. 5: There will be no (relevant) trade deal between the US and China.
- Not sure about that, but rather true.
Economy
no. 6: The dollar continues to rise, from the current 96.80 to over 100 (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy?mod=watchlist_ticker).
- was partially true (high of 102.99 in late March), but dropped heavily afterwards. I still think the USD will rise far more. But I rate this forecast as wrong.
no. 7: The Dow Jones rises from the current $ 28,645 to over 33,000 (but could afterwards drop lower just as quickly).
- wrong, the ATH was at 30‘637 (Corona wasn't on the table in december 2019).
no. 8: A large European bank (e.g. HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, UniCredit, BNP Paribas, Santander) becomes insolvent and must be bailed out.
- wrong
Crypto
no. 9: Bitcoin hits $ 30,000 during the year.
- wrong, but it was a photo finish, with a high of 29‘200 USD on the last day of 2020.
no. 10: Bitcoin's dominance continues to increase, from currently 68.2% to over 75%.
- wrong, but BTC‘s dominance increased from 68.2 to 70.5%.
no. 11: Steem rises from 78th place to the top 50 again (https://coinmarketcap.com/).
- wrong. Due to the hijacking of Steem, we now have Hive 😀. If I remember correctly Hive was temporarily in the top 50. Currently it's not, but I remain confident we will see Hive in the top 50.
no. 12: Steem reaches 2 million accounts in total (currently 1.35 million) - very daring, I know ...
- I am not sure about that, but I think there are still less than 2 million Hive accounts.
Others
no. 13: Croatia will win the European football championship.
- This event was cancelled.
no. 14: Protests / demonstrations continue to increase in number and violence (Hong Kong, Yellow Vest Movement, etc.)
- True, especially Black Lives Matter and anti-government protests in France.
no. 15: I will continue to accumulate bitcoins and Steems (stacking sats) and become an Orca.
- True (but a forecast I could enforce).
So, in summary out of 15 I have 10 wrong, 4 correct and 1 (no. 12) uncertain.
7 new forecasts for 2021:
- Bitcoin will surpass 100‘000 USD before end of 2021.
- The S&P500 will end 2021 lower than it is today (3‘756).
- Hive will surpass 1 USD before end of 2021.
- The winner of the 2021 German federal election (Bundestagswahl) and the new Chancellor will be Friedrich Merz.
- The dollar (DXY https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY) will rise in 2021, from the current 90 to over 100.
- A large European bank (e.g. HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, UniCredit, BNP Paribas, Santander) becomes insolvent and must be bailed out.
- A government debt/ currency crisis will arise, either in China or Turkey or Italy or Brazil.
My personal statistics on Hive for 2020 and goals for 2021:
increased my stake from 41‘000 to 150‘000 (thanks to the stupid and criminal actions of Justin Sun and the resulting hard fork of Steem to Hive, I could dump my Steems and accumulate a lot more Hive 😍).
wrote 56 posts (6 posts earning a payout of >10 USD, the highest-paid was this: @zuerich/why-hive-is-a-great-name-for-our-community).
777 followers
goals for 2021: 180‘000 Hive Power, at least 52 posts, 1‘000 followers
I wish you a great new year, with good health and a lot of success.
Hive on, zuerich