A lot of people keep asking the question, why have we not seen altcoins season when Bitcoin has made a new all time high. I see this question almost every day, and honestly, it shows how confusing this market has become for many people. We were used to a time when once Bitcoin moved, altcoins would follow without much delay. That mindset is still strong, but the market is no longer behaving that way.
This also connects to what I wrote earlier about people saying there was no bull run just because altcoins did not move. Bitcoin making a new all time high is already a bull run. Altcoins participating or not does not change that. The problem is that many of us are still judging today’s market with yesterday’s expectations.
Looking back at history, one can say that alt seasons have never been as clean as people are trying to convince us right now. First, in 2013, Bitcoin went into full mania, and only after that, some altcoins moved, and even that was for a very short time. Similarly, in 2017, Bitcoin again heated up late in the year, altcoins followed after, had their moment, and then crashed hard.
The 2021 cycle confused people the most. Altcoins started running early, just weeks after Bitcoin began its bull run. Most of the gains happened early, then meme coins took over the market. That was the longest alt season we have seen, but it still ended around the same time as Bitcoin. It was driven by hype and fomo.
This current cycle feels different again. Bitcoin already made a strong move from the bear market bottom and went on to make a new all time high. Altcoins tried to follow, but the rallies were short lived. We saw some mini alt seasons here and there, but nothing that lasted long enough to turn into a real one. Now we are deep into the year and there is no mania anywhere.
Despite how messy all this looks, the reason is actually simple. Altcoins are high risk assets. They thrive on hype, fear of missing out, and pure speculation. They are not the main asset in this market. Bitcoin is. For altcoins to truly run, Bitcoin needs to enter a wild mania phase.
Right now, Bitcoin is strong, but it is calm. There is no crazy hype, no reckless buying. As long as Bitcoin moves in a controlled way and continues to dominate, altcoins may keep struggling. No Bitcoin mania, no real alt season. And that is why, even with a new all time high, many people are still waiting.
