Currently (April 2026), the price is around 110-112 USD per barrel, driven by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict in Iran.
Analysts (Macquarie, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg) see a possible spike to 150-200 USD only in an extreme scenario (prolonged blockade of Hormuz until June or longer, ~40% probability according to some). Most base forecasts (EIA, JPMorgan, Goldman) expect it to drop to a 70-85 USD average in 2026 if the conflict resolves soon.
Step-by-step (brief format):
Assess the real risk
- Reaching 200 USD requires a massive and sustained supply disruption (not the base case). It’s a “fat tail” event: huge gain if it happens, but likely total loss if not. Only use money you can afford to lose.
Choose the most efficient instrument (recommended order for this extreme bet):
- Call options on oil futures or USO ETF (United States Oil Fund): Highest leverage. Buy far-dated calls (December 2026 expiry or longer) with high strikes (e.g., 150-180 USD). Cheap if implied volatility is not extreme.
- Crude oil futures (CL on NYMEX): Buy long contracts with high leverage, but requires a futures account and margin management (monthly rollover).
- Leveraged energy ETFs: USO, XLE, or leveraged versions. Less explosive than options.
- Producer stocks (Chevron, Exxon, Devon) or XLE ETF: They rise with price but with lower beta (less gain if it hits 200).
Practical strategy:
- Allocate only 1-5% of your portfolio.
- Enter on dips (temporary drops due to positive news).
- Use stop-loss or take partial profits if it reaches 150+.
- Monitor news on Hormuz, OPEC, and strategic reserves (releases can cap the upside).
- Platforms: Broker with options/futures access (Interactive Brokers, Thinkorswim, etc.). In Spain/Latam: check regulations and access to CME.
Trade management:
- Time horizon: Hold until Q3/Q4 2026 if the conflict persists.
- Costs: Option premium + time decay (theta).
- Taxes and commissions: Calculate in advance.
