With the rise of AI skills replacing humans in everything from acting, singing, writing and photography, to knowledge work in business, the question should be asked what humans are going to do in the future. A lot of people are pretty certain that there will be something worth doing, but I wonder how much is just hope. As I see it, the impetus for learning new skills is rapidly decreasing, because it is far easier to just get some machine to do it, as the result is going to be better than most people can accomplish themselves, and soon, any people can accomplish.
Why learn a new skill in the first place?
If you look at the way we have evolved, it is our ability to learn that has separated us from other animals. We have been able to learn to use our bodies in ways other animals couldn't, to craft tools other animals couldn't, and pass on information in ways other animals couldn't to be the greatest predator on earth, despite our soft skin and lack of power. It is our brain that has kept us competitive in the animal kingdom.
And with the way we have built the economy, it is also our brain that has kept us competitive against each other, which is the reason that people study and get good marks, to compete against other people in the job market. Generally, single skills are not enough to be competitive, which means there are a cluster of skills required to compete for a single position. Even with roles that seem very singular, many skills are actually required to be competitive.
For a simple example, a person could be the fastest person on earth, but if they don't have the ability to maintain their diet, they won't be. The potential to run fast requires a host of skills to realise that potential.
Most of us will not be the best in the world at anything at all. Not even close. However, for a while now we have been competing at a global level, which has turned a lot of potential local stars, into people who didn't even try. Nobodies. There is nothing wrong with being a nobody, but what happens when everyone is a nobody, because they have nothing to offer anybody?
We are already seeing clear direction in this path now, where many people are choosing to stay alone, without a partner of any kind, because it is easier. People fear getting hurt (meaning emotionally hurt) so much, that they would rather stay alone. It means that they have made a decision that there are more negatives in relationship, than positives. The explosion in adult "toy" sales is a good indication of this, where people believe like in Flowers, by Miley Cyrus,
"I can love me better than you can"
And even in the relationships, partners have to not only compete against the toys, but also against the unreal world of AI-characters that are designed to be far more perfect than any human can be, and will do whatever the prompt tells them. People's favourite artists are fast becoming characters, not people. Men aren't in competition with Brad Pitt and women with Angelina Jolie, they are in competition with an impossible at every level fantasy.
And our collective interpersonal skills have also declined, because we have been relying on tool support for a couple decades to do the work for us, from the finding a partner, to the way we interact with them to get onto a date. At the date, reality sets in or soon will, but there are a million other profiles waiting to hook-up, so it doesn't matter. But it will. Because at some point, no one can compete, so no one bothers.
Physical skills and trades like plumbing will likely last the longest as a profession, because it is going to take time to be able to develop a robot that is able to negotiate all the different conditions and positions that are required. But, that too will eventually decline, because the design of pipe work in buildings will change in ways that make it far more standardised and therefore, easier to programme for also.
The legacy will homogenise.
And this homogenisation is where we are heading now, driven by globalisation originally and then by all the algorithms and standardisations that have lowered the variation in order to improve profits.
It is all for profit.
Unlike how we would learn to make ourselves more competitive as a species, now the underlying driver is more competitive in business. Business doesn't require people at all to be successful and will generally perform better when people can be excluded from the operations, because people have too much variation. Variation is a cost.
As I see it, eventually all the human skills that we can possibly learn could be replaced by machine learning instead. That means, that there is very little reason to learn anything, other than for the pleasure of it. But that pleasure will always be soured by our own comparison to what else is out there, which will be so far ahead of us, we will never actually feel "good" at anything we do. And while some will try to deny it, we are competitive animals because we are comparative animals.
We have preferences.
And more and more, those preferences are being met through artificial means, where we can feel that we are getting what we want, when we aren't getting anything at all. We can feel that we are able, when we can do nothing ourselves. We can feel in love, when there is no object of our affection, just a machine.
As far as learning new skills goes, even if there are areas where some humans could compete with machines, the road to get to the point where that is possible is so long, requires such dedication and innate talent, and has no reward along the path, that it is unlikely that anyone will take it. And unfortunately, this is likely to be the same for many people who have the need for a loving relationship, but just aren't willing to learn the skills required to have one. So instead, they will choose a machine to fill the emotional void, and their body.
And think they are better off.
When we are no longer learning, when there is no reason to keep on pushing ourselves, even if we are taken care of physically, we will be living in a dystopic environment of stagnation. Our minds will atrophy, as will our bodies, and we will decline into more obscure preferences to fill the void, to feel special, to feel anything at all.
For a time, there might be a renaissance of learning, where people will return to craft, but eventually, without purpose, it will fall away. Because if we have no needs, we have no drive, and without drive, our willpower is not enough to sustain us for long and we will give in to convenience once again.
The same thing we are doing now.
We are learning nothing.
Taraz
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