In order for any BTC price to increase -two things should happen
- Liquidity of buying currency should increase to absorb the supply. In case of crypto it can be effectively measured by tether supply.
- Hodlers should keep holding to reduce the supply
Figure below shows the tether supply with BTC price
Since July 27th the Tether supply is not increasing and that also does not support sustaining of upward price moves.
Figure below shows market cap of all the stable coins from santiment database:
It is clear from this also that not only tether supply is constant but supply of all the stable coins is constant.
Figure below shows HODL waves from Santiment database for Bitcoin
Since August 7th the hodl waves are sloping down which does not support sustaining of upward price moves.
That means there is no fresh supply of liquidity into the system which could have offsetted the selling pressure of hodlers. That has been the reason that BTC price also mostly remained range bound around 10K.
If last two days upward move has to sustain then hodl waves should move up and liquidity measured by market cap of stable coins must also move up.