To determine the 2018 preseason value of the Magic Number the same formula is used, but I only include players that played at least 10 games last season.
My calculation for the 2018 preseason magic number is: 7038.
This number can be used to estimate the Break Even (BE) score a player needs to remain at the same price for the following round. I say estimate because the exact BE score for a round depends on the Magic Number which is calculated after the completion of that round.
The BE estimate can be used to identify players that:
- will go up in value which can be used as stepping stones to reliable high scoring players,
- are levelling off after rising or falling,
- will drop in value and therefore may be traded out.
This a graph of the 2017 Magic Number values for each round of the season.
As can be seen, the Magic Number becomes less variable as the season progresses, and tends to trend lower.
To generate a more realistic round one Magic Number value prior to round one, a logarithm equation could be found that approximately fits the plotted points.
The equation would be in the form y = A + Bln(x), where x would be the round and y the Magic Number.
Using this method my 2018 season round one Magic Number estimate is: 6825.
You can see the Magic Number values following each round at http://fantasysports.win/magic-number.html, and the estimated BE for each player at http://fantasysports.win/break-evens.html.