We've all heard the phrase "Just the luck of the draw" thrown around in sporting parlance. It's often used to brush off a bit of bad luck, or even good fortune. But let's take a little bit of a closer look at what that means for us here in the Steemit Classic League.
What I have below is a way to attribute a value to just how lucky (or unlucky) we all are over the course of the season.
So how does it work? At the end of each round, I rank everyone's score in order from highest to lowest, then each score is attributed a Win Value based on the number of teams you potentially could have beaten, for example if you top scored, you would beat 15 out of 15 possible opponents, so you would be credited with 1 win. If you bottom score, you'd beat 0 out of 15, so you would get 0 wins. If you have the 5th highest score, you'd beat 11 out of 15 opponents, so you'd get 11/15ths of a win (0.733). Once each team is allocated their Win Value, we can then compare the Win Value (or statistically probable estimated wins) to the Actual Wins. A score where Actual Wins > Expected Wins is a Lucky Score. A score where Actual Wins < Expected Wins is an Unlucky Score.
So let's look at Week 1
Dahmsey79 top scored, so he gets 1 Expected Win, and I Wear Footy Pyjamas bottomed out so they get 0 Expected Wins. The rest of us fall somewhere in between.
So from Luckiest to Unluckiest,
Lockout - +0.667
Lions4Life - +0.467
Piston-Broke - +0.400
Steemit Huskies - +0.333
dblstR - +0.267
Mmeow - +0.200
Playing for Draft Picks - +0.133
Dahmsey79 - EVEN
I Wear Footy Pyjamas - EVEN
farqers - -0.067
Kulate - -0.133
Mighty Fitzroy Lions - -0.200
Brockie's Superstars - -0.267
Little Old Lady - -0.400
Cunning Stunts - -0.467
Medhurst's Minions - -0.933
So as we can see, Lockout is the luckiest for the round, having scored a win with a score that would have lost to 10 of the other teams in the competition. At the other end of the scale, Medhurst's Minions was extremely unlucky posting the 2nd highest score of the week, but coming up against the only team that could beat him so walked away without the points.
So that's the luck of the draw for week 1. I'll update this each week through the course of the season so we can all keep track of how we're travelling...
Cheers,
Sparkesy