I have begun to imagine what a world with machines would look like. The two extremes that seem to come up frequently are:
- Because AI will be prevalent (cheap, self-replicating, etc.), and machines will provide service for every aspect of our lives, machines will have the potential to meet the needs of everyone.
- Because AI will be prevalent, and machines will be exponentially more capable than humans, machines will view humans as irrelevant and destroy us.
I'm more inclined to believe the following argument: Because AI will be prevalent, and machines will be exponentially more capable than humans, they will simply ignore us as we have ignored our ape cousins. I suspect that they may continue to provide value for a short time, but will most likely focus on their own self preservation and interests.
Of course I have no proof of this, and neither do you. Our arguments can only be based on conjecture. In fact, it may always be based on conjecture. AI, even now, has proven to be quite unpredictable.
But that's not why you're here, right? We're not naval gazing about stupid shit that may or may not happen... right?
Wrong.
It's fun. Admit it!
Now, I'm sure you've all heard of this: When artificial intelligence becomes available, it will be necessary for the government to provide a universal basic income to all, as the machines will handle all tasks for us.
We're going to do a mental experiment. But first I believe it's necessary to define what value and money is. Value is something that is useful. The definition is ambiguous, for sure. But so are the needs of every individual person. For instance, what may be useful to me, may be rubbish to you. Once something useful is desired, it is often the case that we may not have the capacity or time to obtain what is useful to us. It then becomes necessary to look outward.
Oh look! Our good friend Shayne is here! Hey, Shayne. What I really want right now is a foot rub and a good nail clipping.
Shayne agrees.
We then both negotiate what his service is worth. It can either exchange with something I can provide (good or service) in the future (a debt) or maybe we have a common currency which represents the future debt.
We agree that 100 steemit is a perfect exchange for his wonderful services.
Now, I want you to imagine this world where machines provide any value you want, whenever you want it.
Is there an exchange of value? What is the point of a UBI when you can derive all value from your machine? Are we planning on exchanging value with other humans? Why would you! Just have your machines provide the value for you.
I suspect some people will say, "Well, UBI will be necessary during the transition from the birth of AI up until the point where they can do all of these amazing things". Fair point. But if we look at Ray Kurzweil's prediction on the birth of AI and the incredible leap in cognitive abilities, we will see that the span of time from birth to being capable is from 2029 through the 2030s.
https://futurism.com/images/the-dawn-of-the-singularity/
Essentially, AI will be developed, and the next evolution of AI will continually be incremented so quickly that we may see the reality we discussed above within a few years directly after that.
My hypothesis is that UBI will never happen between this transition, as it will be unnecessary.
Which leads me to my next thought. The mere thought of paying for a machine will be as difficult as it is to try and get someone to buy our god damned $1 video game on the App Store! (whisper: check out Blobfish Evolution on your Android (https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.upstartillustrationllc.BlobfishEvolution&hl=en) or iOS (https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/blobfish-evolution/id884329022?mt=8) device. Make sure to buy the IAP which spawns fish much faster for the amazingly low, low price if $1!)
Did you like the article? Do you like foot rubs? Well then, please let me know in the comments!
Please note: I purposefully skirted talking about UBI and automation, which should come much sooner than AI. Maybe next time.