NOTE: For an update (play-forward) of this analysis, click on the Tradingview chart image above, then the triangular play button when you get to Tradingview. Enjoy and comment what you think!
Whats up fellow trader's and Crypto Heads!
Our CIO Mike has been a bit under the weather lately and we had a follower request to take a look at AION so, I'll be stepping in for him today! Anywho, this will be a quick one, but it's a beautiful example of one of the reasons we need more banking licensed exchanges with higher volumes of crypto to fiat pairs!
But Fiat Is Evil!!!
I mean...you're not wrong, but its a necessary one for now. I've overlayed the BTC/USDT 13 bar EMA on top of our AION/USD chart to show why. Notice some similarities here? This is one of the major problems plaguing strong crypto projects these days, the lack of a low volatility trading pairs (fiat/crypto). The unfortunate reality is that until the space has more fiat pairs, we'll keep seeing this reliance 1.34% on bitcoin -0.58% price. And one of the most troubling things about this is not just the fact the price moves when BTC -0.58% does, its the fact that this is not representative of sentiment, but rather just an inevitable binary result of only having btc -0.58% pairs.
Anywho, I'll hop off my soapbox now; just thought this was a particularly clear example of how restrictive bitcoin -0.58% pairs are affecting price more than actual sentiment. Anywho, AION has some interesting things going on right now, I'm short term bearish , but the long term trend is definitely slowing its rate of decrease and shifting momentum.
The Good
- Our prior trend's long term overhead resistance was tested successfully as a new support
- Medium-High Strength support in $1.82 to &1.77 range
Neutral
- Volume has been sliding for over a month and still is, but the ROC is slowing down significantly
- Stochastic of the OBV is trying for a rally, but I believe a breakout is unlikely
The Bad
- BTC/USDT double topped and is swinging down, lower volume markets likely to follow
- Normalized MACD & RSI below zero, and decreasing - Extremely bearish sign
- Possibly approaching neckline of Minor H&S , if we dont bounce a slide is imminent
- Breakout above Andrew's Pitchfork 50 line was unsuccessful
Final Thoughts
AION in my opinion is a strong project but like much of the market its being pulled along in the wake of whales fighting it out in the BTC -0.58% markets. I wont be bullish unless we see a breakout and two bars close in the $2.25 to $2.32 range.
$1.75 will be another important price point to watch, if we have a double close below there I wouldnt be surprised in the slightest to see an impulsive move to the downside, possibly as low as $1.50
***TV doesn't seem to like my layered OBV stochastic and it disappeared but the linreg shows the range and trend direction well enough for these purposes.
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Happy Trading!
Austin Doyle
CTO