The non-existence of alien is a far more disturbing idea than the idea of their existence.
-Bernard Werber
Introduction
There is approximately 10 planets per star, nearly 200.000.000.000 stars per galaxy and also nearly 200.000.000.000 galaxies in the entire universe.
So there is about the same number of grain of sand in earth as stars in the universe, and 10 times more planets.
Life as we actually know based on water and formed by autonomous individuals, can only appears on a very little percentage of these planets, Drake's formula, permit to estimate the potential number of extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy considering a lot of parameters such as the percentage of rock material based planet, the percentage of needed material based planets, the average duration of an intelligent civilization and much more.
(Data estimated by kepler)
Considering most pessimist variables in these formula's, their would be nearly 100 intelligent civilization per galaxy, so nearly 20.000.000.000.000 civilizations in the universe.
This represent approximately 10 intelligent civilizations per grain of sand cube meter in earth.
Considering average parameters, theses results can be multiplied by 30 and more.
Our solar system is relatively young and most of potential civilization could have been failed at passing the nuclear technology level or something else and/or more evolved. So potential extraterrestrial civilizations would be certainly much more evolved than ours.
So if there could be as much as extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations as described above, why does nobody have been visited us or why does we do not see past traces of ancient visit ?
This question is the Fermi paradox, many hypothesis classed in three categories have been formulated to try solve it.
#1 Hypothesis
Extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations do not exist
This would be due to unique earth conditions in universe and the non-existent other form of life would be explained by the way that the universe has been only created for human soul. This is the theory is often supported by recent forms of religions, however it would suffice that we discover any kind of life in our galaxy to prove this theory wrong.
#2 Hypothesis
Extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations exist but have never enter in contact with us
Some sub-hypothesis have been formulated:
- Because no other extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations have reached a enough evolved technology level to create the contact.
- Because they would have reach a transcendent existent level.
- Because they are biologically or technologically too different to create a contact.
- Because there time dimension is too different from ours.
- Because there is not an extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations that have been capable to reach an advanced technology and understanding level, because of war, lack of resources, ecological disaster and more before have reached a sufficient maturity.
- Because there is no one extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations that are expansionist, a bit (~50%) like ours and hopefully, because if a colonialist civilization like ours but in more evolved reached us, we would relatively soon be reduced to enslavement before been capable of noticing it. In any case, we would probably do that, we would extract their resources and energy and leave out by letting our trash, like how we actually do on our own planet inside our specie.
- Because it was a very very long time ago, they came took interesting resources, that could explain Mendeleev missing elements haha.
- Because they have a fear of us, because of our incredible capacity to massively invest in army and bombs, this could be judged as a bit silly, but personally if i would see all these bomb waves at the surfaces of our planet, i wouldn't go visit them.
- Because they have nothing to care about us, a bit like when we pass at the side of an anthill and prefer spend their time and energy at extracting resources and energy that could explain infrared emitting between mars and Jupiter that is abundant in metals.
#3 Hypothesis
Extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations exist and are/have been in contact with us
- They have been visited our planet and visit it regularly.
- A precursors form of life present in outer space or an other specie sowed life a long time ago, and we would be in fact an extraterrestrial specie, it is the Panspermia called theory.
- They study us at distance without revealed themselves, it is the "cosmological zoo" called theory.
- Earth would be in a dedicated zone that is unreachable or not allowed to interact by other extraterrestrial civilizations in reason of a cosmological pact, it is the cosmological apartheid called theory, no contact would be possible before acquiring a defined level of technology with avoiding self-destruction.
- Earth would be in a powerful "virtual" simulation that would hide extraterritorial traces at the solar system level, it the the called planetarium theory.
- They are within us and/or around us, but they can stay invisible at our eyes and/or take other form due to their god-like advanced level of technologies and are able to modify religious statement and/or even create new one.
In conclusion their is a lot of hypothesis that goes around E.T. forms of life and we don't know the truth. But what is sure is that the truth can be even more incredible and even exceed our theory and/or imaginations.
But if we want to know more about our galaxy, it would be great to unit our power and make some changes, because if we analyse our story, fulfilled of inner conflict and our ability to deplete natural resources while putting dangerous trash in our environment, we could believe that the self destruction can be the most seem to be the most probable explanation of the Fermi paradox, however it's never too late, it would need/suffice to define a strategy to channel the awesome knowledge, inventions and technological improvement made from some years from now to converge to a durable, sustainable and more intelligent (see more respectful of human and nature in general) way of working together in the way to evolve and maybe in some years be able to explore some new solar system. But it will inevitably passing by a questioning about actual establishment in order to be able to think differently and target a better level of understanding and technology.
So for that, we can to stay lucid and take the time to think an share about that :)
Image source
Huge thank's to "Mouton lucide", in particular for his video "These sh*thead aliens" that is a very good french YouTube video creator where this article was mainly written from.