What works once, maybe doesn't work a second time

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A long time ago, Hive account@ph1102 and myself teamed up to purchase one of the last batches of Untamed Splinterlands packs. By teaming up, we managed to secure a nice discount and we bought the packs at a very cheap price. We split the purchase price and also the packs. We both didn't have the same strategy thereafter.

While I couldn't manage to keep most of the packs unopened, Hive account@ph1102 kept most of his packs. After a couple of months, the value of these packs skyrocketed. I remember selling a single pack for close to 90 Hive which was close to 20 times the purchase value of the packs. We made a very nice profit with this move.

One collection later, Hive account@ph1102 tried to repeat the move and he bought Splinterlands Chaos packs at a very good price. Unfortunately, this time it's didn't work the same way. Since the purchase, the pack and card value has decreased and it resulted in a big loss.

What changed?

A lot of things changed between the two series. In addition to the traditional crypto moves, the number of packs sold in Chaos was much higher than the one in Untamed. Also there were some very powerful untamed cards that kept their value very well. This wasn't the same for chaos cards.

In conclusion, I believe that in crypto things are very volatile and the situations change very quickly. If you make a good deal one day, you should really ponder the fact whether you can reproduce it or not. Sometimes, it will be a one time thing and other times it might be repeated.

The thing is, we can't know in advance. In my opinion it's always a 50% chance that things turn out the way we hope. On the other hand, if we never take any risk, we can't expect exceptional rewards.

What we tried with Untamed packs, gave an exceptional reward. We took a risk and it was worth it. When we look at the value of chaos packs now, we would say that it was a loss. However, we don't know how the value of these packs will evolve in the future... Maybe their value will increase...

Finding a good risk balance

Without taking risks, we won't make big losses but we won't get exceptional gains either. It's important that we find a good way to deal with these risks and then avoid taking decisions based on emotions. Hive account@ph1102 has still most of his chaos packs and who knows how much worth they will be in the future? Maybe one day, I will come back to this post and tell you how good a decision it was that he kept his packs... Or maybe not :-)

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P.S: Hive account@ph1102 and Hive account@mypathtofire inspired me for this article and therefore each gets 5% beneficiary rewards. Thanks guys ;-)