1.Dishonesty and Reputation Problem
The first reason I think Bitcoin Cash is doomed to fail, is that only people with dubious reputation or motivation are promoting it.
I don’t want to turn this post into a vendetta and I have nothing personally against anyone in the BitcoinCash movement. But let’s put the facts we have on the table.
Who are the most notorious people pushing Bitcoin Cash?
Craig Wright.
He went on National TV and affirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto. Well, it’s VERY easy to prove that you are Satoshi Nakamoto. But he never did proved it…. in fact, he showed proofs that later turned out to be fakes!
Based on Occam Razor, the most likely answer is the simplest one. Craig cannot prove that he is Satoshi Nakamoto because he is not.
Now, why would you listen to anything that Craig has to say after coming to the conclusion that this guy went on national TV to lie?
Human behaviour are not like mutual funds. Past beahviors are a very good indicator of future ones.
The whole Bitcoin Cash movement are creating events and inviting him as a special guest to give talk and share his ideas… Birds of a feather flock together.
Jihan Wu and Roger Ver:
Jihan and Roger are probably the most notorious backers of the Bitcoin Cash project and they control most of the mining power. Roger is the owner of Bitcoin.com mining pool and Jihan is the CEO of Bitmain, one of the biggest manufacturer of Bitcoin Mining hardware, and the owner of multiple mining pools. They both control probably more than 90% of all the mining power of Bitcoin Cash.
Why would only 2 people control more than 90% of all the bitcoin cash block mined? That is probably because no one else want to be part of this project. Indeed they have a lot of funds and money, so they can finance losing money and mining at a lost for a while. But this will have to change sooner or later.
Did we work on Bitcoin for 8 years to have 90% of the mining power in the hand of 2 persons?
Also, you have to keep in mind that Jihan hardware has been proven to have Asic Boost technology in it. This technology helps save 20-30% in energy cost but is very detrimental to the whole Bitcoin network. Here’s an interesting article by Whale Panda.
Jihan Wu claim that he never used it but seriously, why would you be against segwit which would make AsicBoost completely useless if you aren’t using it?… I let you come to your own conclusion.
And Roger Ver business, purse.io and other he invested in rely completely on cheap on chain transaction which Bitcoin Cash allow, but more on that later.
So we have a lot of personal benefits and very few “For The Greater Good of the Network” benefits.
2. Scientific Problem
First let’s be clear here. We shouldn’t have the people of a town vote on the design of a rocket. This should be a scientific debate discussed between scientific.
Scientific debate shouldn’t be turned into referendum.
From what I understand, some developer couldn’t get the majority of others in the Bitcoin Core behind their idea, so they went on the public scenes and try to garnish votes. I really doubt that Isaac Newton created calculus by going around his hometown asking for the input and support of his co-citizen.
Bandwidth is the bottle neck
There’s many scientific reason that shows that bigger blocks are really a bad idea. Some people think that scaling to 10GB blocks is fine because SPV wallet would be able to work. But James Lopp explain why SPV wallet would not scale at large because of bandwidth problem.
I personally like to defer my vote to smart people when it comes to science problems i cannot fully grasp. Bram Cohen, the creator of Bit Torrent… Adam back who was cited in the Bitcoin WhitePaper and created HashCash who contain the basis of the mining system that we use today in Bitcoin and many more smart people are all advocating for smaller block.
Those people along with hundreds of very smart engineers and scientist are all working on the original Bitcoin, not Bitcoin cash. Their must be a reason…
Business incentives
All businesses pushing to have bigger blocks all depends on cheap on-chain transaction to survive. They do have a personal agenda. Their goal is not to make Bitcoin Great Again, but to make their business strive and grow.
It’s like choosing between killing someone else children to save your own. From your personal, emotional and selfish point of view it makes sense, but don’t try to fool me into it.
3. Network Effect Problem
Finally thinking that you will overtake Bitcoin by forking an altcoin seems a little bit out of this world. It has been 8+ years that the core team has been maintaining and upgrading Bitcoin protocol bringing the confidence of Investors around the world.This is no small feat.
A reputation is really hard to gain but easy to lose. It’s important to stress this part.
It took 8 years, for investors to trust Bitcoin
Bitcoin wasn’t a store of value 4 years ago, it was a libertarian statement and a speculative investment. Today we are seeing hedge fund manager investing in Bitcoin. This is a huge step forward. It’s certainly not the new Bitcoin Cash developer team that got them thinking they should invest a percentage of their portfolio.
Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency today that im sure a 100% is not in a bubble. I know that his value will increase over time with the current developer team and roadmap.
Yes, Ethereum and other cryptocurrency gained value quickly but they all massively depended on the trust that Bitcoin gained over the years. There is no way that an altcoin forked from Bitcoin will over take it. It’s just impossible…
Bitcoin Cash is simply an Altcoin. There’s a lot of hype around it because it just got created, but I think that it’s value will slowly dwindle and might finally stabilize to a fraction of the price it is today.
What should you do with your Bitcoin Cash?
If you own any Bitcoin cash, I would strongly advice you to sell them before they become worth much less than they are today. This is not investment advice but just my own understanding of the market.
The community at large is not behind Bitcoin Cash. I have nothing against an altcoin, but why would you fork bitcoin? Seems a bit selfish to me and inconsiderate for other Bitcoin users.
But in the End Bitcoin don’t care. It’s an honey badger and nothing will stop it.