Dear Steemites, this is to draw your
attention to the monumental flooding at
the Island section of a place called Lekki,
Victoria Island and Victoria Garden City
respectively, in Lagos, Nigeria.
The reason for this warning is because
these areas are where the LA creme of the
society lives and in which hosts several
multinational companies with expatriates
living and working therein. As I type this
now, the whole area has been submerged
in flood. People have fled the area and
some dangerous acquatic animals like
crocodiles and alligators have been
caught by some vigilant residents of the
area who are still around.
Below is an extract from a resident of the
area for your reading pleasure and to
buttress the seriousness of the issue.
Before going to work, I had jogged every
morning, often to the Alpha beach behind
our residence. It amazed me, at the time,
just by mere visual awareness, how each
year, the Atlantic claimed a significant
portion of the beach in a determined
advance. No one measured!
Again, every year, we experienced an
Socean surge in the area. I noticed that
each year, the surge advanced into the
Igbo Efon area significantly further than
the preceding year. No one measured.
••• Third, during the five years I appeared
live on Silverbird TV, there were times,
after an overnight rainfall, I literally swam
with my SUV to the partially submerged
TV station behind the Jakande Area.
That is not even where I am going. While
waiting for my slot on TV, I would go to the
Beach behind STV to meditate. Friends,
within a period of 5 years, I saw the ocean
claim 5 or 6 rows of coconut palm trees
lining the beach! That would have been
about 30 meters in 5 years! No one was
measuring! Why measure such things
when "God is in control?"
Well, then, using the available historical
sub-meter pixel satellite imagery of the
area and a digital elevation model, I did a
cursory study of the peninsula. What I saw
startled me. (But I must state upfront that
this was not a thorough scientific enquiry
that is critical for understanding the
gravity of a disaster lurking in the
distance.)
••• Number One: Lekki is completely flat -
there’s very insignificant variation in
altitude. Two: Lekki is somewhat below
sea level. A combination of those two
factors meant that a mere 50 cm rise in
the Atlantic ocean level could rapidly
build a handshake between the ocean and
the Lagoon. I hate to imagine the
implication to the VI-Lekki-Ajah corridor.
But who cares? And who should care
when “God is in control” as we say in
Nigeria. No one will measure.
••• About the time I worked in Chevron, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) had estimated a very
conservative forecast of rise in ocean
levels of 65 cm by 2100. That has since
been adjusted to over 100 cm.
We may say, “Oh 2100 is a long way
ahead!” And that is what kills the “Black
Man!” (pardon the racial cliché). Lack of
foresight! Poor planning. Thinking and
living for the moment only. No one is
measuring.
Well, the bad news is that scientists are
not sure how fast or how soon this 100 cm
rise will happen and what other
geological events other than polar ice
melting could trigger the rise.
••• We saw a little rainfall a couple of days
and panicked. Like the behind of a hen
when the breeze blows, we were
confronted by our nakedness and utter
helplessness with just a little rain. How
about if it rained 40 days and 40 nights?
Here is the worst tragedy of all: We're not
learning!
“We have recently been inundated with
pictures of flooding all over Lekki in Lagos,
there have also been stories of continuous
rain for nearly a week. The pictures are
distressing especially for the people who
live in Lekki, Victoria Island, Aja etc.
“However what has been missing seems
to be any structured reports of the
amount of rainfall that has caused this.
How many millimeters of rainfall has
caused this amount of havoc.
This kind of information is invaluable in
proffering a solution to the problem. I
hate to think that perhaps there is no such
information available. Right there in
Victoria Island is the National Institute of
Oceanography and Marine Research. I
shudder to think that even they don't
have the data.”
That, my friends, is the tragedy of the
Nigerian situation. Someone who works at
the Agency that Uka referenced actually
confirmed that the data doesn’t exist! In
his depressing words, the Federal Agency,
like others, is there “just to receive
allocation and salary!”
••• Listen, people, it is impossible to run a
civilization on haunch and feelings! A poor
country will remain a poor country UNTIL
they begin to make RESEARCH and DATA-
DRIVEN decisions!
I’m terrified to imagine that no one is
capturing data on these floods! I’m
terrified that no agency is on TV showing
us an impact map of the event! Because
none exists.
••• Nature is so kind. The Vanguard
Newspaper report of July 8 began with “As
usual flood ravaged Lekki, Victoria Island
… after many days of down pour….”
Did you notice the “As usual?” Each year,
the Lekki-VGC-VI corridor receives a yellow
card. How many more yellow cards before
the red, no one knows. I’m not a Murphy
evangelist but from experience if a red
might come, it will come. It’s just a matter
of when.
•••Nevertheless, Lagos has zero natural
disaster contingency plan as many
families discovered over the weekend. No
one came for you as you watched your
beautiful sitting room turning into a fish
pond.
No one has even mentioned insurance in
the narratives.
Same thing in Port Harcourt. Aba Road is
to Port Harcourt what testicles are to a
man. Hold him 'there' and he throws up
his hands in surrender. If a disaster sinks
Aba Road 2 million residents will be
trapped in a rabbit hole.
••• If the Lagos government would listen,
there needs to be an urgent thorough
interdisciplinary study of the State
involving scientists, geologists, soil
scientists, satellite remote sensing
experts, GIS, oceanographers, marine
biologists, anthropologists, computer
scientists and so on. There are analytical
and predictive tools to model the next 5,
10, 50, 100 year scenarios and plan
intelligently.
••• At best, my people of Lekki, VGC, Ajah
and VI, please stay as dry as you possibly
can. That’s what Facebook tells me
whenever the rain is about to fall.
May God bless and keep you safe!
From Foluke Ibiteye
Dear Steemites, this is the situation right
now. For those of you thinking of visiting
the area or acquiring properties therein,
please be guided.
Thank you.
