The aftermath of false victories

Opposition groups generally, I think, grossly underestimate the combined resources available to state and private sector power. Of course, this is particularly true in authoritarian societies, both because of the thorough interconnection between government and business, and because the population has been reared on highly controlled information.

It is my view that revolution never took place in #Egypt; what happened in 2011 was a popular uprising, which could have taken any number of different routes, and local elites collaborating with international elites, navigated the challenge masterfully to prevent the outcome desired by the population – which was substantive change.

It was always my view that #Sisi had a short shelf life. He is the weapon that should be discarded after using it to commit a crime. I honestly do not believe that real existing power elites ever regarded him as a permanent fixture. Whether or not the current protests are a prelude to his dismissal, I don’t know; but the fact remains, he is redundant.

You may argue that his departure is a sufficiently good thing to make the protests worthwhile – even if this follows the agenda of Egypt’s “Deep State” and their international managers. Maybe so. But here’s the thing; I actually believe that popular movements can achieve real change, and when they repeatedly undertake action which results in continuity of existing systems of control, people lose hope in popular movements.

The current protests may facilitate a change of personnel in Egypt’s government. People will be happy. And then nothing will change. And then it will become even harder to convince anyone that protest can accomplish anything. Two things can happen then; some people return to apathy and other people turn to radicalism. I hate to see either of these prevailing in Egypt, may Allah help you all.