The most difficult thing to gain, and maintain, is a good “reputation” – which I say in quotes, given how ambiguous, fleeting, and ever-changing it can be. To that end, it’s said that once you’ve lost it, it’s hard to get back – which in the case of financial markets, I strongly disagree with; as when it comes to business, you’re as “good as your last trade.” Frankly, I don’t think people could care less whether I’m a good person; or trustworthy, respected, or otherwise; so long as what I’m “recommending,” or merely speaking positively of, goes up.
I bring this up in the context of the ongoing crypto crash – which is far from the first I’ve witnessed in my 30-year career…going all the way back to the crude oil crash of 1998, just as I signed on as an oilfield equipment sell-side analyst. Back then, I was a lowly associate – and irrespective, crude oil is such a massive, heavily covered market, there is no way to really distinguish oneself. Thus, my reputation didn’t suffer as a result of the crash – or improved when oil turned around in 1999, and went on a nine-year bull run.
No, my “reputation” didn’t start to become molded until I started publicly commenting about Precious Metals in 2002, at the age of 32. No one knew I sold my stocks at the top of the internet bubble in April 2000 – admittedly, not much money at the time; but they were well-aware I went all-in to Precious Metal miners in the Spring of 2002, given my daily contributions to the then-popular GATA website.
The sector mushroomed for the next five years, giving me lots of credibility in the small, but growing Precious Metals sector – particularly when I started working as an investor relations consultant and officer to miners in 2006. Unfortunately, despite bullion continuing to rise for another four years, miners peaked in 2007, and crashed in 2008 amidst the financial crisis. When the sector rose again in 2011, my “reputation” was restored – and maintained, even after I publicly sold my miners mid-year in lieu of bullion, just as they were peaking again.
At that point, I became a VERY vocal hater of Precious Metal mining stocks – going all-in bullion due to what I perceived to be a far strong, and safer, reward/risk profile. To that end, I left Torrey Hills Capital in October 2011 – one of the leading mining investment relations firms – to become Director of Marketing at Miles Franklin Precious Metals, one of the largest U.S. bullion dealers; from which, I loudly preached the value of holding physical metal, versus mining stocks, for the next six years. Unfortunately, gold and silver prices peaked just as I joined Miles Franklin – though unquestionably, they dramatically outperformed mining stocks while there. To wit, gold is down 33% since then – and the HUI mining index, 75%.
Was my reputation strengthened by my Precious Metals experience – or weakened? Good question, as when it comes to 15 years of work, financial beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Did you mimic what I did, in real time? Did you listen to me for my philosophy, or “recommendations?” Did I ever lie, or mislead? Did I support my conclusions, or change them to suit selfish purposes? There’s simply too many criterium to give a firm answer, but I like to think my Precious Metal reputation was as strong as anyone’s in the space…particularly given how much time I spent exposing its downward manipulation – which frankly, had as much to do with the price declines as anything else.
When it comes to crypto, I pose the same question – about the reputation of myself, and other “leading” commentators. Assuming my “track record” dates back to January 2016 – when I first started publicly recommending Bitcoin (and buying it personally) - we now have three years of material to work with; which frankly, gives me a longer track record than 90% of those involved in the space.
It is well documented that I recommended Bitcoin, and only Bitcoin, from January 2016 on – so much so, I ultimately was fired from Miles Franklin in August 2017 for being “too bullish” on Bitcoin. In many ways, the PM (Precious Metal) community turned on me, as a “traitor” for becoming less bullish on what they believed I should support for the rest of my life. I never did a thing to harm PMs, or PM investors - but by simply recommending the “competitor” Bitcoin (which as it turns out, it is), I was vilified as never before – far more than when I publicly descried mining stocks in the spring/summer of 2011, despite STILL working in the mining stock industry.
That said, I never mislead anyone – with my parting of ways with Miles Franklin, not uncoincidentally, coming just as I was selling my silver for Bitcoin in July/August…which, I might add, was catalyzed by the “locking in” of SegWit in July, and implementation in August. Of course, I was portrayed as saying one thing and doing another by those angry, and jealous, of my success – in many cases, simply seeking click bait.
One of my biggest crypto “reputational victories” was my prediction in October 2017 – BEFORE Brian Kelly of CNBC spoke of the “wall of institutional money heading for crypto,” that once Bitcoin rises above a $100 billion market cap (at the time, $6,000), it would unleash a massive price rise. And subsequently, that newly launched Crypto Hedge funds would cause an equally massive price rise after January 1st. Few people were watching, as CGC had just launched in September 2011, and I had just started appearing on mainstream crypto programs. However, it was all out there for the public to see – and particularly, my then subscription-based client base.
When the price surged from October through December, my crypto reputation was at its strongest – and strengthened further when I first started discussing what Adam Meister later deemed the “Hoffman Line” as a major support level, from the first time it bounced off it in February 2018. The price held support there for eight months – which by the way, I never “guaranteed” to hold. Instead, I merely spoke of its importance and strength – in the context of what I believed, like the other Bitcoin “luminaries,” to be the dawning of a new Digital Age.
To that end, I made investors a LOT more money than say, Tone Vays - who repeatedly predicted the price would collapse each time it challenged $6,000. Throughout 2018, it bounced off $6,000 to first $11,800; then, $10,000, $8,500, and $7,500 – decimating anyone shorting it with the hopes of Tone’s “shock value” prediction of $1,300. Conversely, though I wasn’t making a “technical prediction” of higher prices, if you followed my view that the Hoffman Line was real, you did just fine.
Unfortunately, 2018’s price moves were more chop then trend – and frankly, anyone who attempted to trade in either direction was decimated. To that end, as the crypto bear market expanded – particularly in altcoins, which I had advised avoiding from day one – sector sentiment inexorably weakened; to the point that I made my blog free, for lack of new subscribers – and instead, focused on new opportunities in the crypto space, in the area of consulting. This is where BRhodium came in.
As a free aidrop in December 2017/January 2018, I directly benefitted from its success. Moreover, I became increasingly intrigued by its potential – to the point that I got to know the (anonymous) development team very well. By the time the summer rolled around, I was as bullish about its potential as anything I’d come across – with a sizeable position I paid nothing for. It all occurred organically, with no thoughts of “capitalizing” on it, other than to promote the future of this fantastic, free altcoin.
When BRhodium’s MainNet launched in late October, Bitcoin “maximalists” were dumping it for the equivalent of $3/BTR, valuing it at about a $2 million market cap. Thus, I acquired a significant amount for myself – with Bitcoin, prior to its crash; and for clients who had been following my years’ worth of BRhodium commentary - most of whom, not only acquired it through the free airdrop, but with my direct aid.
And then, the big Bitcoin crash of November 2018 – catalyzed, incredulously, by a fork of the already discredited BCash by an equally discredited Bitcoin core developer. Given I had spoken all year of the importance of the “Hoffman Line” – now, at $5,700 – it should be no surprise that I publicly sold my BTC when that level was broken…not out of a lack of belief in Bitcoin’s future, but financial self-preservation.
Simultaneously, the BRhodium story was gaining traction – to the point that it rose from $3/BTR at the time of MainNet launch to as high as $30 in mid-late December - giving it a peak market cap of roughly $25 million. This compared to “comps” like BGold, BDiamond, and Super and Lightning BTC trading at much higher valuations, with BRhodium’s exchange launch imminent…in the context of a dead-in-water Bitcoin market trading in the $3,000s.
In the Bitcoin community, I had been ridiculed all year for speaking bullishly about the free airdrop BRhodium – as if I were a traitor to the “cause” for merely mentioning an altcoin. This, despite relentlessly bullish Bitcoin commentary – which remained “acceptable,” of course; and continued warnings of the dangers of altcoins in general. However, that was nothing compared to the vilification I have received for selling my Bitcoin when the very support level I discussed all year was breached – just as I was for selling my silver in the Fall of 2017; and shortly afterwards, my gold.
The funniest thing about this “reputational analysis” is that those who have relentlessly “shilled” Bitcoin all the way to the bottom, are considered “heroes” in the same manner as those still telling us gold and silver are on the verge of soaring from the all-time inflation-adjusted lows they have been trading at for years. I mean, how many people listened to Max Keiser promote Bitcoin at $10, compared to the hundreds of thousands of Twitter followers he received when Bitcoin surpassed $15,000? This is not a knock on Max, of course, but simply an observation; which is no different than my experience – of being largely ignored from $400 to $10,000, before becoming a major Bitcoin personality thereafter.
To that end, is Tone Vays “brilliant” for having promoted Bitcoin at the top, and to this day holding his entire net worth in it - while simultaneously predicting it would crash AFTER it had already plunged, only to watch it surge multiple times before finally breaking the Hoffman Line? Not to mention, given how much bullish material he publishes on Bitcoin’s future – making it possible to be a “winner” whether it surges or plunges…which I assure you, is his “strategy,” given that I’ve seen the same “short-term bearish, long-term bullish” strategy in the Precious Metal sector for 15+ years.
Today, BRhodium is experiencing its first crisis – having crashed in price immediately upon exchange listing, despite no material fundamental issues. The problem being, that as I wrote yesterday, the process of listing for new altcoins is a minefield that must be navigated – in this case, one that produced technical, exchange-driven issues on day one…and subsequently, a major FUDstorm.
Nearly all my clients are still in the black – though, just like Bitcoin, some came in in the bull run’s latter stages. They all knew what they were getting into, and most already had sizeable positions from the free airdrop. That said, it’s hard for even the most hard-core Bitcoin maximalist to act magnanimous - now that the price of the world’s best “store-of-value” asset, that they have pounded the table on from $20,000, is down 85%.
Which again, is not a knock on their views at all – but rather a relative analysis of “reputations” in the crypto space. Throw in the fact that I am supporting BRhodium’s efforts with every ounce of my being, and you can see my money is where my mouth is. Perhaps it will one day change – as it did in miners, bullion, Bitcoin, and every asset I have ever known (bullishly or bearishly); but for now, I see this exchange-driven dump – not surprising, given the horrific state of the current crypto market – as a strong buying opportunity, for those with risk/reward profiles amenable to altcoin investing.
As I see it, I have been honest with my views from day one – in energy, miners, bullion, Bitcoin, and BRhodium. In each case, I might add, one of the earliest investors, at the lowest prices. However, as we have ALL learned over the years, investing is not easy - particularly in alternative asset classes with inherently high risk profiles, that are NOT supported by government money printing and market manipulation. No one can say I have lied or misled them – and all I can do is do my best to say what I think, and act on my views. To me, that’s all that matters when judging one’s reputation – as in the big picture, financial beauty is in the eye of the beholder.