Crypto’s “summer doldrums” ended with a bang, when the vile “Faketoshi” launched a heavily-coordinated, all-fronts attack on BCash; with the ultimate goal, according to his (100% untrustworthy) statements, of destroying not only Bitcoin, but all of crypto - and replacing it with “Satoshi’s Vision”; i.e, a MUCH bigger-blocked version of the original BCash. Which, I might add, he helped to create and promulgate - until he had a falling out with its FORMER kings, Jihan and Roger.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1070485055514927104
- Andy_Hoffman_CG
Yes, I know Bitcoin is still young, at just ten years of age. However, its community hoped, and believed, it’s “anti-fragility” was proven a year ago, when it won the (first) BCash scaling debate. Not to mention, when it shook off the Chinese crypto ban, BTC-e collapse, Winklevoss ETF denial, and countless other hurdles. This is why the price exploded last Fall - as it was assumed institutional investment would follow, yielding a multi-trillion valuation in the very near-term.
Unfortunately, as we are learning now in real-time, Bitcoin’s anti-fragility is far from set in stone – at least, in terms of BIG moneys’ interest in moving a material portion of their assets into it. Unlike the original BCash, SV “came out of nowhere” – and in barely five weeks’ time, has carved a path of destruction that could take some time to clean up…or perhaps, not.
On yesterday’s World Crypto Network appearance, I was asked “why wouldn’t Bitcoin move back up?” – after having fallen 81% since last year’s peak, and 45% in the last month alone. My answer being, ONLY if it was usurped by another cryptocurrency – which in my view, is all but impossible.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1070429703410872320
- Andy_Hoffman_CG
The problem, however, is that many headwinds stand in Bitcoin’s way, starting with SV - where the uncertainty of what CSW is aiming to do; and the potential means he has at his disposal; has the entire sector stricken with fear.
“Maximalists” have attacked me for warning that SV is a threat – more so, due to the FUD it creates than an actual threat to the BTC network. However, the FACT is, that nothing I have seen in five years in crypto has caused so much damage, so quickly…with it’s “leader” being, for all intents and purposes, a malicious megalomaniac who, unlike Roger and Jihan, is deploying a “scorched Earth” policy.
So much so, I bought some SV last night to “hedge” against the potential of it becoming much more powerful than most anticipate. And given that it is about to “flippen” ABC imminently – perhaps, later today, given that the SV blockchain has just surpassed ABC’s, with its market cap on the verge of doing the same – it’s unquestionably a dangerous threat that CANNOT be ignored.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1070485055514927104
- Andy_Hoffman_CG
At present, the Bitcoin community remains in “deer in headlights” mode, refusing to fight back or even acknowledge the damage SV is causing, or threat it poses. The reason being, that for all the CryptoTwitter bluster about the Bitcoin “movement,” it was always just about the money…and now that most investors have been REKT - including many Core developers; they have clearly lost the motivation to fight back.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1069637266404892672
- Andy_Hoffman_CG
If Bitcoin is as strong as we (and I) believe, it will ultimately bounce back - as bottom-fishing investors, retail and institutional, scoop up cheap BTC; and new mining entities enter the game, now that difficulty has adjusted dramatically downward. However, given what has transpired in the past month, it’s quite possible this process takes some time – until SV’s ultimate “end game” plays out to the bitter (or bittersweet) end.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1070512404574875650
- Andy_Hoffman_CG
https://twitter.com/fernandoulrich/status/1069576039590961152
- fernandoulrich
Then again, financial markets have a habit of making people look stupid – so it’s entirely possible Bitcoin has already discounted the worst, given how dramatically the price has declined. I mean, BTC’s hash rate is 3.5x higher than when it hit $20,000 a year ago, DESPITE the hash rate having fallen nearly 50% in the past five weeks. And yet, ALL the post-SegWit gains are gone…as if its discounting that CSW is “right.”
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#1y
Consequently, as I wrote yesterday morning, it’s entirely possible that Bitcoin, the most enigmatic, “beat to its own drummer” asset in history; experiences a significant “relief rally” when ABC is destroyed - and possibly, a significant bottom. Of course, this is only one possible scenario – that right now, would take the crypto community by an incredible amount of surprise.
“Don’t be surprised if an SV/ABC “flippening” turns out to NOT be a major negative for crypto – but instead, the event catalyzing a KEY UPSIDE REVERSAL.”
Moreover, the “beat to its own drummer” thesis is being severely challenged by the fact that it’s unlikely a coincidence that capital markets, in general, are having their worst year since the early 1970s…in which ALL assets classes are down - from stocks, to bonds, commodities, currencies, Precious Metals, and cryptocurrency.
Yes, crypto’s correlation to other asset classes could be specious, due entirely to its recent bubble collapsing. However, the same could easily be said for many other asset class bubbles – all of which, are declining in different degrees.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1070381276455043072
- Andy_Hoffman_CG
Back to the original question, of “why wouldn’t Bitcoin move back up?,” I maintain my belief that its only actual “threat” is another cryptocurrency – which in my view, is a VERY small threat.
Yes, the timing of a significant Bitcoin price recovery - and from what ultimate bottom - remains uncertain, in light of the aforementioned litany of headwinds it currently faces. However, unless SV can pull off a miracle – by convincing investors CSW’s “vision” is superior – the odds are that Bitcoin will indeed have a strong, lasting recovery…it’s just a matter of when. As frankly, when I look at today’s “scorched Earth” landscape” - of annihilated fiat currencies; Precious Metals at all-time inflation-adjusted lows; and the vast majority of altcoins enroute to zero; it’s difficult to believe the world’s BIG money won’t return to Bitcoin soon…particularly if the long-awaited, inevitable financial crisis that Central banks have been deferring for years, is on the near-term horizon.