Sometimes, markets bottom purely due to PRICE – as “value buyers” and “bottom fishers” swoop in, or technical traders see an asset as vastly “oversold.” Sometimes, a dramatic improvement in an asset’s OUTLOOK is responsible – like, for instance, an unexpected FDA drug (or SEC ETF) approval; sometimes, the outright EXHAUSTION of selling pressure – particularly of scarce assets like Bitcoin; and sometimes, a bottoming of SENTIMENT – when prices plunge amidst a litany of negative news flow…like for instance, this week’s news that the Indian government is ready to ban cryptocurrency, whilst Bakkt Bitcoin futures were delayed and the SEC said a Bitcoin ETF won’t be approved anytime soon.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1070849381727784960
- Andy_Hoffman_CG
Sometimes, such events end in definitive, violent CAPITULATIVE events – like last Fall, when Bitcoin had a dramatic, high-volume upside reversal after the Chinese cryptocurrency ban was announced; whilst sometimes bear markets end not with a bang but a WHIMPER – like the post Mt Gox bear, which ended 18 months after the peak, when no was paying attention.
In this case, there is no way of knowing when the 2018 crypto bear market will end – or, for that matter, if it ended Thursday night with Bitcoin at nearly $3,200. However, if I had to make one guess of what will “do the trick,” it will be the dumping of Bitmain’s one million-plus BCash…which it MUST inevitably do - likely, imminently - given its rapidly cratering financial position.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1071074362826969090
- Andy_Hoffman_CG
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1070852559596773376
- Andy_Hoffman_CG
The entire crypto community is staring at Bitmain’s BCash’s ABC wallets – and SV, if it has already split it out – to see when the selling is to begin, just as closely as it watches Satoshi’s Bitcoin wallets. Nothing will please me more than to see BCash collapse below $50 when this occurs – and likely, much lower…particularly as it may well provide the catalyst, capitulative or otherwise, that definitively ends the 2018 crypto bear market (hopefully, before year-end).