Growing up in New York, with a natural aptitude for, and interest in, finance - an easy, mainstream Wall Street career seemed highly likely. However, my actual path couldn’t have been more circuitous - as over the past 29 years, I’ve made more significant changes than I could have imagined. Not just in my career, but my investment portfolio, and outlook for the future.
The bursting of the dotcom bubble in 1999, just as I arrived at my “dream job” as a sell-side equity analyst at Salomon Smith Barney, significantly soured my outlook on stocks. Thus, when I came across Precious Metals in 2002, my investment outlook changed entirely. I went all-in gold and silver miners – and when I left Salomon in 2005, went even more all-in, commencing a five-year career in mining investor relations.
When the 2008 financial crisis, my outlook for the legacy financial system precipitously plunged – as did my view of mining companies, having watched them decimated by Cartel price suppression for so long. Thus, I again changed my portfolio – and career – in 2011, when I divested my miners, went all-in physical metal, and became the Marketing Director of a leading bullion dealer.
Yet again, a “dream job” turned out to be a nightmare; as Precious Metals – first, by Cartel price suppression; and later, Bitcoin; were marginalized. Fortunately, I recognized Bitcoin’s potential in January 2016; by not only in buying it, but writing of it, to the chagrin of my bosses, as often as possible - until final leaving the bullion business in August 2017.
I then sold my silver, realizing it no longer had monetary value in the emerging Digital Age - but still believed in gold when I started CryptoGoldCentral.com in September. However, Bitcoin’s victory in the scaling debate again changed my outlook – to one in which not only silver, but gold would forever lose their monetary value…at which point, I went all-in Bitcoin, both financially and as a percentage of the commentaries I published.
Throughout my 2½ year Bitcoin “era,” I have been as “Maximalist” as they come. Or so I thought – as not only is my definition of Maximalism a bit less rigid than others, but I did at one point own some Litecoin…until Bitcoin’s scaling debate victory; and launch of the BCash and BGold crypto-dividends; at which point, I couldn’t envision a scenario in which Litecoin outperformed Bitcoin over the long-term.
Yes, I believed – and still do – that the vast majority of altcoins don’t have use cases. However, some undoubtedly will – and irrespective, the question I asked myself last year; of whether the crypto bull market would be all about Bitcoin - or altcoins, too; has been resolved in favor of the latter.
In other words, whilst Bitcoin’s “real-world dominance” will likely remain as strong as ever – and possibly, strengthen as institutions and even governments recognize its utility…and necessity; my view of altcoins’ as an asset class has dramatically improved, too – to the point that, as a group, I wouldn’t be surprised if its “market cap dominance” rises significantly during the next, inevitable FOMO phase.
There is simply too much money – as in, tens of trillions of dollars’ worth – headed for crypto from the $300 trillion legacy asset markets, for the microcap altcoin market to not respond dramatically – with parabolic rises akin to the dotcoms…which in my view, we saw our first taste of in January.
So, as we navigate the choppiness of the early stages of a new Bitcoin bull market – in which, inexorably improving fundamentals face off with the slowly but surely waning impact of the Mt Gox Trustee, I am officially declaring my mistrust of altcoins as an asset class to be dissolved.
Thus, while I will continue to only invest in Bitcoin due to my personal risk/reward profile – which, over the long-term, may or may not produce superior returns to altcoins; I recognize their dramatic upside potential, for those with higher risk tolerance. The reason being, that the Crypto Juggernaut will simply be too powerful to be contained – by legacy markets, and even Bitcoin itself. The capital flow I anticipate into this sector will be historic, “floating all boats” with the rising tide. Some will ultimately fail, and some will be spectacular winners – but as long as capital is flowing into crypto, altcoins as an investment should do just fine…possibly, yielding spectacular risk-adjusted returns.
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