NYC CHRISTMAS 2018 HAIL MARY FORECAST
Good morning everyone and welcome to your third installment of New York City Hail-Mary forecasts, this one for Christmas-time. We have a lot going on first and I'll get into that, but demand has been high for these super-long range touchdown passes, so I'll throw another one out there.
EASTERN SATELLITE
First off, we have another soaker heading our way. Clouds have already moved in and they should be with us all the way through Sunday afternoon. Look for the chance of sprinkles at times today with highs in the low 40's and light winds.
Tomorrow, light rain begins to push in between late afternoon and evening; highs in the low 40's. Heavier, steadier rain moves in overnight before departing Sunday late morning to early afternoon. We should squeeze out an inch or two of rain, which will be a problem with oversaturated ground; so look for ponding and localized flooding. However, the wind won't be an issue this time around as this system doesn't pack a lot of punch in that category.
Highs Sunday could potentially reach near 60 as low pressure goes well north and west of us, but it'll be flash-in-the-pan and gone before you know it.
We start the week off relatively mild with a sunny and breezy Monday, highs in the low to mid 50's. Then we start to sink quickly as we enter the rest of the week. Colder air bleeds in by Tuesday as we may not hit 40 as a high. This big and faster push of cold air could suppress any development of prospective systems for mid-week, but we'll continue to watch closely and make sure we aren't brushed by anything.
As far as now, Wednesday looks cloudy and cold as our potential system slips south of the area, highs in the mid to upper 30's. Cold weather sets up camp for the rest of the week as 30's dominate into next weekend. We're also watching the prospect of another system late next weekend or earlier that following week; but it's too early to tell and a pattern is unfolding in which fast-moving, cold airmass may suppress the big action to our south.
With a history so far of fairly accurate, holiday, Hail-mary forecasts, I've been called into the game to throw another winner. So far, Halloween was a 100% success and Thanksgiving was dead-on aside from the highs being even colder than I expected, but we're on a good run.
As of now, I see a stubborn pattern growing progressively colder, but still stubborn nonetheless. Systems are trekking across the Country at a steady pace, with action during the weekend +/- 1 day and a smaller system behind each larger one.
Looking into my crystal ball, we have a 70% chance of a sunny, windy, and cold Christmas; with a system departing just before Christmas Eve/Day.
We'll be keeping a close eye on this and many other things to come. Stay tuned and enjoy the start to your December.
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