April Arrives Soon Active Chilly Pattern Lies Ahead

Looking ahead to the tele-connection indices going forward they do not scream warm weather lies ahead. This time of year the strengthening sun can take temperatures into the 50s almost reflexively and even the odd 60 degree day is going to occur from time to time. The first one is coming on Thursday of this week ahead of the next cold front. However looking at the overall picture, there will be some shots of cold air that we are going to have to deal with as well. Weather models are handling things a bit differently going forward with the upper air jet stream but the general idea is the same.

GFS FORECAST MONDAY APRIL 2, 2018

Both models are showing higher than normal pressures across the polar region which displaces the mean jet stream south of average. The European model has the higher pressures also across the polar regions. The GFS seems to have the highest pressures further west than the European at this point but in the end both models seem to have the same idea with shots of cold air coming down.

The area of below normal temperatures is extensive covering a large part of the Eastern US as well as much of Canada. Remember that average highs in the beginning of April area in the mid to upper 50s so 10 degrees below average means highs not getting out of the 40s. Look for the first shot of cold air to arrive after a cold front passes with some showers on Easter Sunday.

This pattern looks to hold for awhile if the long long range is to be believed. A second shot of cold air follows this one with another cold front that arrives next Tuesday evening which means the second half of next week looks chilly.

Of snow lovers never can get enough snow even though the vast majority of us have had enough. Right now the flow is fast. The North Atlantic Oscillation is forecast to be positive so weather systems are likely to keep moving along. We are at the point where snow in April comes when the set up has to be perfect and timed perfectly. In other words it needs to snow at night unless it is from a large coastal storm. The absence of any North Atlantic blocking will argue against this but given the way March has been I wouldn't completely close the door on a late season surprise. From here I think the best approach is to see how things evolve in the long range as we move through this week. The snow melt from last Wednesday continues at this point and most areas have seen their snow disappear. Now if only the cold pattern would disappear so fishing season can get underway!